Cognitive dissonance and Assumptions

Image: William Strang's "The Conspirators"


When we are children, we can sustain the idea that there is a conspiracy against us as we only have a few likely suspects. 


As life gets more complex, it is more difficult to hold onto massive conspiracies, so one grows in perspective and looks for either a master conspirator, so subtle they can move movers who do not see the hand (I hold on to this one), or that there are truly different perceptions. (This is also true.)


I argue that one should never attack another's conclusions. That avoids the real issue no matter how happy it makes one feel. We all need to look at the assumptions that yield what seems as odd conclusions. There is no argument with conclusions. Nor, is there any use, other than for fun, in attacking morons who disagree with you.


Below is the beginning of an article today by the head of Guggenheim Partners Asset Management. Mr. Minerd is a wonderful writer, a clear thinker, built up to his point in an literate fashion for a web article:

Europe Needs to Overcome Its Cognitive Dissonance:

In the early 1950s, the American social psychologist Leon Festinger conducted an experiment that provides a valuable insight into Europe’s current troubles.

He encountered a religious cult that believed UFOs were coming to rescue its members from a cataclysmic flood that would destroy the earth. He infiltrated the group to research a theory he called “cognitive dissonance,” or the psychological tension experienced when people are presented with evidence that contradicts their assumptions or beliefs.

“People only accept change in necessity, and see necessity only in crisis....”

When the prophesied Day of Judgment came and went, without so much as a drop of rain or a flying saucer sighting, Festinger observed how the members coped with the dissonance of reality. Because the group had committed considerable expense in support of its view, altering its course was simply too costly. Instead, the leadership transposed its expectation to a future date, and encouraged followers to escalate their commitment and even proselytize others. Some members found a way to lessen the pain of disconfirmation; but ultimately, reality would prevail.

Festinger concluded, “Though they may try to hide it, even from themselves, the believers still know that the prediction was false and all their preparations were in vain. The dissonance cannot be eliminated completely by denying or rationalizing the disconfirmation.”

Political Psychology

In many ways, this paradoxical story is analogous to the political psychology of the European debt crisis. Policy makers have committed, at considerable cost, to a path of bailouts and austerity programs. The recent European Council agreement out of Brussels offers more of the same -- billions in additional liquidity, yet no meaningful structural solutions.

It should be painfully clear by now that liquidity is not the answer. Equally evident is that austerity is not the cure. Throughout the European periphery, the disconfirming data mount as the calendar marches forward. Time, once thought a precious ally that could be bought for a price, is proving to be an adversary. It most certainly is not healing all wounds, as the economic data attest.

Thus far in 2011, Greece’s debt burden, budget deficit, cost of funding and unemployment rate are rising, while its economic output and tax revenue are declining. Ireland and Portugal are likely to follow in Greece’s footsteps and need additional support. Complicating matters further is the continued rise in interest rates in Italy and Spain, which puts additional pressure on their anemic economic growth and fragile banking systems. By the fourth quarter, economic contraction is likely to have engulfed the entire European periphery.

Austerity Doesn’t Work

In short, the data are proving that without currency devaluation, austerity simply doesn’t work. Crisis in Europe has not been averted; it has only been modestly postponed. Yet policy makers remain committed to the path of waiting and hoping for the best, seemingly oblivious to the need for significant structural reform.

I was all in on this article until here.  The clear solution to this stereotypical Wall Street guy is all he can see is the Keynesian perspective:

What action should European leaders pursue? As Sherlock Holmes said, “When all other contingencies fail, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” Admitted or not, the realization hitting European policy makers is that the survival of the euro region will inevitably require a greater degree of fiscal unification. As German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble recently confessed, “The nation state as the sole level of policy making has exhausted its effectiveness.” He also admitted, “When we founded this monetary union, Germany was in favor of a political union, too.”

Narrowing the Discussion

Although “political union” is a vague term, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has narrowed the discussion. He asked rhetorically in a recent speech, “Would it be too bold, in the economic field, with a single market, a single currency and a single central bank, to envisage a ministry of finance of the union?” Under Trichet’s proposal, the European Union would have the power to veto the budget measures of countries that go “harmfully astray.” In an indirect fashion, his wish has already been partially granted. Greece, Ireland and Portugal are currently subject to governance by the EU, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund.

The argument remains that Europe is far from possessing the political will for increased fiscal union. Politicians view it as unsalable to nationalist constituents. But the lack of action by European leaders may do the selling for them as the crisis deepens. As Jean Monnet, the man who built the very foundation for the European Union, once said, “People only accept change in necessity, and see necessity only in crisis....”

I sent in a reply comment suggesting that if we are all in a row boat that is sinking, the answer may not be organizing people into rowing faster.  There is a more natural and inevitable way to end the pressure bankers and politicians are putting on us. Simply end the Keynesian house of cards we have permitted our elitists to build.

Simply return to sound "money" and the protection of the individual's property.  Do this, and all else fades over time.  As I say, it is inevitable as each of us, the many parts of the foundation of our economics, will make our own decision to withdraw from the paper game of bankers and government.  The human moves quickly and quietly when their own well-being is confronted. No structure can predict is or control it, once consciousness is poked.

Like I say, store silver coins. That will make you the solution, though the government may be after you in its death throws.  So, bury it deeply.

Or, buy coffee and store it