There has been some welcomed distrust of Greg's comments, but I think he is serious. It could happen.

Home  Bonds  Bond Types

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

WHAT IS AN INFLATION PROTECTED SECURITY? 

TIPS, or Treasury Inflation Protected Securities were introduced into the bond market in early 1997.  TIPS are issued by the United States government and therefore have no default risk associated to them.  As with Treasury bonds, TIPS are issued through the Federal Reserve auction quarterly and can be purchased through the Treasury Direct system and coupon payments are made on a semi-annual basis. 

The unique feature with these bonds is that their principal is tied to the CPI (Consumer Price Index).  The CPI measures the rate ofinflation monthly by measuring price changes in common consumer goods.  TIPS protect the value of your investment by increasing the principal value of your bond by the rate of inflation, ensuring that periods of high inflation will not erode the relative value of your coupon.  The term "relative" is used here because the interest rate of a bond will mean much less if inflation is very high and visa versa. 

You can perform a very simple analysis to determine if the treasury vs. treasury TIPS yield spread (aka. "TIPS Spread") makes it worthwhile to invest in the TIPS.  For example, assume the yield on a 5 year TIPS is 3.5% while the yield on a treasury bond with the same maturity is 6.25%.  Now assume an average inflation rate of 3%.  The TIPS would actually yield 6.5%, or 25 basis points higher than the treasury bond of the same term to maturity.  Through investing in TIPS, you are basically making a bet that inflation will move higher over the period of your bond term. 

POTENTIAL RISKS OF INVESTING IN TREASURY INFLATION PROTECTED SECURITIES 

The first risk factor of investing in TIPS is that the measurement of inflation is done through CPI.  The CPI measurement may not be completely accurate so the principal balance of the TIPS may not increase alongside with true inflation. 

Secondly, if interest rates spike higher, TIPS yields may rise as well.  This would negatively impact the price of the bond on the short run; however, TIPS should still outperform on the long run. 

Another downside of investing in TIPS revolves around the fact that they do not pay the inflation adjustment out until the bond matures.  This has in implied risk, albeit almost zero since the United States government is backing this security.  Also keep in mind, the inflation adjustment that the bond receives will be taxable yearly, even though you do not receive this cash.  Basically, you will be charged on income not yet realized (Hmmm)

Finally, and least importantly, there is a deflationary risk.  While deflation has not been around for quite a few decades, it is a possibility and TIPS will adjust your principal lower to account for deflation.  There is a safety net, if you will, that does not allow the principal balance to drop below the original amount. 

CONCLUSION 

In conclusion, TIPS can be a good investment for those of you who believe that inflation is here and here to stay.  When general market yields move higher, TIPS begin to underperform similar maturity fixed income investments due to a potential drop in inflationary pressures, which will in turn drop the price of the bond in the short run.  Longer term, TIPS provide as a good hedge against inflationary and even hyperinflationary environments.

Labels: CPI, TIPS

Here is a long piece worth reading, with pencil in hand.

Here

I went to this site as pundits and investment bankers are talking up the market, talking about the FED raising or not raising rates or when, or what happens when they do.  Lions and tigers and bears, oh my.

This is all fun, but the article from Kitco will offer some caution.  At some point the manipulators lose control of the strings and the marionettes crash into one another.

Investors are like the person with a hammer - everything looks like a nail. They have been making money, after losing it and destroying our monetary infrastructure, but that was a long time ago, right? Now, they see more investment because of cheap money - think about this distortion.

I mentioned Soros was buying B of A last month and, sure enough, it took off today.  Clearly, there is information insiders know, like the government protects its own. He looks smart, but is just connected.

Gold fans just buy without examining its underlying value which, it turns out, doesn't matter, as yet, as what is more important is the bad value of our economy.  Old time traders say: wo, way too high, look for 850.  Other old timers say, don't sweat the dips all hell is breaking loose. Depending on the time frame, both are right.  Still, there is a see-saw.

My only point, in the end, is anyone with cash is nuts. You are paying money to keep it. Why not protect it in something not a stock and not a commodity?  If you have extra assets, then you can play investor as and see what happens.  If you a worried about survival, time to take a conservative action.

Stocks and gold, and so on, are flags in the wind of monetary pricing and government interference.  Winds change.

If you go here, you can learn how to buy TIPS.

TIPS are ignored, in general, as they are not sexy, at all, but they are the only security against serious inflation. There is no reason to not purchase these treasury bonds, other than emotional inertia, the tool of the crooks.

The site mentions you can buy TIPS from your broker.  TIPS are bonds and trade at a discount or premium.  Prices change and one can buy and sell them like regular bonds.

Here, you can see TIPS prices move. When inflation is low, TIPS are low; when inflation heats up, TIPS move up.  Why?  Because they guarantee a return so they are of interest to those wanting to defeat inflation.

A TIP guarantees a certain, modest return, no matter the inflation rate. If you get 2%, that sounds trivial, but if the inflation rate goes to 18%, as it has in recent memory, you will get 20%

If that doesn't sound like fun, consider what you are getting on your checking and savings account, then factor in a 7% reduction in the dollar each year.  The government is using an invisible tax to take your assets.

When inflation starts up seriously, see article, investors will look around for a place to park cash.

If you are holding TIPS, you will see the value of the bond increase both to match inflation, as promised, AND because of a panic to get to security, the price of the TIP will see an increase.  It could be a serious move.

Also, I am concerned that there will be an attack on Iran soon, so security is a nice idea.

The government is using inflation to erase debt.  It eats debt by making the debt easier to pay as money becomes worth less and, thus, you get paid more. (Hence, get a loan now as it will be easier to pay later)  Real assets, like silver, will apparently go up during this time, but mostly it goes up because the dollar goes down. The same with oil.  As I was informed yesterday, an ounce of gold will always buy a good suit.

If inflation takes off, so will oil prices- even as demand goes down.  Supply and demand have an affect, but the devaluation of the dollar will trump the markets.

Your friendly government is digesting your money. It does so intentionally.  So, you do as you think best.  A god serf will have a nice checking account.

Even Republican politicians join in this shell game, though not at the spectacular numbers afoot these days, so I won't bother to activate the socialist meter at this point.  

Monetaristic policy is agnostic, you can be whatever party you like as you play with people's lives.

Labels: inflation, TIPS

Labels: photos

Rod sent me an important source for researching global warming.  You can click on the title to get in the general area.

I can't believe the real cause of the cooling-warming change has been found.  The correlation is perfect!   QED.

Labels: proof of global warming

First, in Canada today's Financial Post, Business Section large headline:  


At least someone is paying attention to the U.S. collapse.  Canada is working to survive our insanity. They seem to think there are only two things that we can do. Either alone or together:  stop spending or tax less. Jerks. There is the Obama option:  raise taxes, cost of government, borrowing, transfers to friends, and spending.  There was a piece reporting on John Hussman's crazy notion that Geithner and Bernanke are premature in their "mission accomplished" events. He is a Maryland economist with a fund.  


The paper reports that in 2012 the U.S. deficit will be more than 100 percent of the GDP.  Canada's will max out 2010 at 79%. Of course, the proposed socialist taxes on everything will kick in about that time, as well.
-----


I am trying to figure out when to leave Toronto, an inter-storm exit.  I see Europe is also being blanketed by snow.  From a climatological perspective, we remain in the scientifically settled Gore Effect. 


I think we were in an El Nino year, but haven't checked.  That, coupled with no sun spots this year, until recently, Florida will likely have a freeze or tow, so buy orange juice.  Or, its futures.


Rod sent in a piece from the National Post, again Canadian, from the Deniers series.  I will quote a bit.  You can hit the title to get to the full story.  This piece will go along with what I stated, as a non scientist, long ago.  Once the cat is out of the bag, those socientists who want to keep their reputations will become, if not deniers, then insipid doubters. Of course, this article is over two years old, so the cat has been wiggling out for some time.

Within the article are the links to other parts of the series.  Again, recall this is over two years old.  

Allegre's second thoughts

Claude Allegre, one of France's leading socialists and among her most celebrated scientists, was among the first to sound the alarm about the dangers of global warming.

BY NATIONAL POSTMARCH 6, 2007

Claude Allegre, one of France's leading socialists and among her most celebrated scientists, was among the first to sound the alarm about the dangers of global warming.

"By burning fossil fuels, man increased the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which, for example, has raised the global mean temperature by half a degree in the last century," Dr. Allegre, a renowned geochemist, wrote 20 years ago in Cles pour la geologie.." Fifteen years ago, Dr. Allegre was among the 1500 prominent scientists who signed "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity," a highly publicized letter stressing that global warming's "potential risks are very great" and demanding a new caring ethic that recognizes the globe's fragility in order to stave off "spirals of environmental decline, poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic and environmental collapse."

The full Deniers series

Statistics needed -- The Deniers Part I

Warming is real -- and has benefits -- The Deniers Part II

The hurricane expert who stood up to UN junk science -- The Deniers Part III

Polar scientists on thin ice -- The Deniers Part IV

The original denier: into the cold -- The Deniers Part V

The sun moves climate change -- The Deniers Part VI

Will the sun cool us? -- The Deniers Part VII

The limits of predictability -- The Deniers Part VIII

Look to Mars for the truth on global warming -- The Deniers Part IX

Limited role for C02 -- the Deniers Part X

End the chill -- The Deniers Part XI

Clouded research -- The Deniers Part XII

Allegre's second thoughts -- The Deniers XIII

In the 1980s and early 1990s, when concern about global warming was in its infancy, little was known about the mechanics of how it could occur, or the consequences that could befall us. Since then, governments throughout the western world and bodies such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have commissioned billions of dollars worth of research by thousands of scientists. With a wealth of data now in, Dr. Allegre has recanted his views. To his surprise, the many climate models and studies failed dismally in establishing a man-made cause of catastrophic global warming. Meanwhile, increasing evidence indicates that most of the warming comes of natural phenomena. Dr. Allegre now sees global warming as over-hyped and an environmental concern of second rank.

His break with what he now sees as environmental cant on climate change came in September, in an article entitled "The Snows of Kilimanjaro" in l' Express, the French weekly. His article cited evidence that Antarctica is gaining ice and that Kilimanjaro's retreating snow caps, among other global-warming concerns, come from natural causes. "The cause of this climate change is unknown," he states matter of factly. There is no basis for saying, as most do, that the "science is settled."...

Labels: Bernanke, Deniers, Dr. Allegre, Geithner, Global Warming fraud

I am in Toronto enjoying global warming and planning to get back and to NYC before the next snow storm.

Greg sent along a video John Coleman. He is the guy who started the Weather Channel and is not a "scientist," like the head of the IPCC.  Greg sent this to me and it agrees with two years of my blogs; therefore, it is good.  Click here.

It is only fair I warn you he uses a few graphsand links thoughts together. 

On another front,  Rex, who lived on the Cayman Islands, but still linked there, and in N.Y. for ta reasons as he is studying law here in Ontario although he is a barrister....anyway, Rex pointed out that the Cayman Islands are the only place where one owns his real estate. 

In the English tradition that was called "fee simple absolute" and that term is still used, but it is a lie.  As Rex pointed out in North America and elsewhere, the government lets you say you own it fee simple, but only as long as you pay taxes. 

This is a reversion back to the old system, pre-Magna Carta, but no one is paying attention.  Just try not paying you taxes and see how absolute your fee is. Tbis "tax" is really rent.  You don't really own your home; you merely go along with the protection racket.

There are no more freeholders.

Labels: fee simple, freeholder, John Coleman

Labels: economic collapse, Societe Generale

This is a posting in lieu of an entry. I stopped email replies without going through me so as to stop viagra ads.


From Ray

The Canadian press may not be an American source but turns out to be just as sloppy when it comes to checking facts. As verified by factcheck.org - 

http://m.factcheck.org/2009/08/michelle-obamas-staff/ Obama may have up to 24 staff members as reported by the White House.

But where they really went wrong was on previous First Ladies. Turns out Hilliary had 19 and the Washington Post reported that Laura Bush had 24:

Laura Bush’s Staff UPDATE WASHINGTON POST

2008 White House Office Staff List – Salary

Published Thursday, July 24, 2008

bunch of names and salaries followed

-------------------

Below is a  portion of a Daily Bell article.  The current class warfare, which is the very upper class using lower class to control everything, is, as the Bell sees things, moving, perhaps, too fast, that something is going wrong with the long-term, concentration of wealth plan. As Greg put is, "These people are 'all in".

Greg and I were wondering why the leftists in the U.S. are ignoring public opinion, logic, and the looming termination of their careers.  Their "all in" activity is decidedly new and contrary to triangulating everything.  Those who are all in can't articulate any consistent reasoning, other than they have to do it and besides, the  science or whatever is settled.  It may be the new communication system has had an influence.

The Internet is an amazingly disruptive influence. Internet time waits for no old socialist to organize a thought.  It does not provide for a glossy punch like in the face of rapidly evolving data. All the elite and their running dogs can think to do, of late, is attack people personally - that doesn't quite work anymore.  Again, many, if not most, people are catching on and educating themselves before being told what to think.

Were it not for the Internet, few of us would have ever heard of Swift boats or email gate. Now, it takes only an hour to publish data taken real time, like Lord Moncton's recent publishing the disruption of his meeting in Copenhagen by a bunch of American teen morons.  Obama/Alinski tactics were turned around on a worldwide basis in an hour.  The tactics of the 1960s don't work anymore.

 Moncton told the teenagers - right then - that their demonstration had already put their faces all over the world and that they were identified as Hitler Youth.  The students were almost speechless at this, he was right IN THEIR FACES.  That was supposed to be their plan. The only retort was some clown was offended at being called a Hitler Youth because he was Jewish.

The Internet can quickly defang the planners, the manipulators.  At the Moncton meeting, the published emails from East Anglia were to be discussed to show the non-scientific atmosphere among true believers.  It was the Internet that spread these words around the world.  The examples are endless.  Sure, TV told us about large crowds demanding world government to save us from my car, but who watches those shows? YouTube is far more powerful, though not for the drones.

Young people, the basic tool of the manipulators, use the Internet rather than watch the low IQs on the nightly news. Who watches that Kouric person? MSNBC? etc, etc.  This is real problem to the planners whose model involves controlling group think and creating confusion.  The best made plans gang aft agley.

Talk radio reaches older people and is another serious problem.  Again, the Swiftboats were common fare on the radio six months before the networks had to deal with the testimony of false bravado and fraud - they had to try and kill it.  To my mind, their delay killed Mr. Kerry.

 Mainstream media, and yes it exists,  eventually got its talking points out to the drones, but the rest of us already knew the entire story and are increasingly dismissing the drones.  If a person already know the story, the spin is obvious.  Now, the established media attacks the Internet with derision saying the information has not been vetted by real journalists - do they realize what they are saying?

An almost real-time video of an event is a little better than a repair job three weeks later on ABC.  If you want a news digest, I continue to recommend Xinhuanet.com, where reporters remember they are reporters. Other than that, you are on your own; perhaps the Economist will offer differing views on many matters.

Be prepared, Congress has no choice but to act against both talk radio and the Internet, and they have precious little time to act. Otherwise, the ministry of propaganda can't succeed. A serious concern is the GOP  is not a much of an alternative.  We should move beyond the idea of voting for the least bad candidate. They will still be bad.

...Here at the Bell, we do believe the pace of dominant social themes (promotions) has picked up in the 21st century just as the Fabian Society promised. Of course, we still note these are gradualist promotions - they are not out-and-out power grabs, or at least they are not meant to be. There is in fact, a very specific strategy being followed. Some of these promotions have no immediate impact in the sense they are meant merely to confuse and dismay. Others, like necessity of central banking, are endlessly pernicious and economically disastrous. They are all meant to concentrate power and wealth.

Today, we are living through the fallout - yet again - of the central banking meme. Central banking has taken root throughout the world and the results are truly ruinous. In America, as we can see from the article excerpt above, some are predicting that joblessness and general economic wretchedness may last another 20 years. We tend to agree with this, though we also think data and news will make it LOOK as if things are getting better when they are not.

Of course, the latest economic crunch could not have come at a better time for those who want to impose global change from the top down. As Western economies shudder, people are too concerned with jobs and money to worry about the larger changes taking place. Or they become more malleable as the Irish did recently and vote for authoritarian solutions such as the EU because of the hope that large government entities may provide more funding and general economic stimulation than the private sector. This is actually a false hope. Government provides with one hand and takes away with the other. Most of all government decreases opportunity and substitutes barriers to entry.

We are not surprised at the depth of the economic downturn. We are not surprised at the vehemence of those who are proposing yet more of the world's economy be socialized in pursuit of diminished cow flatulence. We are not surprised that more regulation of all types are being proposed - and always at a global level.

And yet, we wonder if the power elite is not now moving TOO quickly. And we wonder WHY it seems so driven. We wonder in fact if the power elite is not as aware as we are (and you, too) of the force for change that the Internet has become. Is it possible that the sudden rush of promotions and subsequent globalist solutions have as much to do with the Internet as they do with the sudden evolution of humankind's globalist sensibilities?

The Gutenberg press played havoc with the power elite 500 years ago. We wonder if a generational elite is not quite aware of the possibility of history repeating itself. Nothing else actually makes much sense to us (assuming you accept the above analysis.) The power elite (and its proxies) is actually acting with increasing rashness, we think. True, in the past we could cite wars, general kinds of civil chaos and variants of economic ruin in which the power elite has participated and even initiated, in our humble opinion. But this is different. This time, the power elite's machinations are being carried out in front of an Internet audience of millions. Each statement, each movement, each fraudulent announcement and every cover-up is being DOCUMENTED by a thousand, no a hundred thousand, bloggers.

Read the emails below mainstream British and American articles on any one of a number of power elite memes from global warming to swine flu to globalist financial regulation. They are mostly full of invective and disbelief. This is not the way it once was. Even a few years ago, there were fervent believers in peak oil, in global warming, in any one of a dozen promotions or more. But the Internet has exposed each of these. And people read ...

It does not take a billion, or even a hundred million, to make a worldwide change. As little as ten million converted to reality and spreading the word to family and friends can upset the apple cart in a single generation. And yes, perhaps this is happening. All the tricks have been played, after all. The world's economy is in a shambles. The globalists meet endlessly. And endless war is fought for endless peace. But we would ask you to defy, dear reader, the Orwellian hopelessness that you are supposed to feel right about now. Don't be enervated. Allow yourself the possibility of action. Human action.

Times are changing. All is not lost. We could document the unraveling of power elite memes. In fact, we do so on a regular basis. We believe the unraveling is taking place at quite a rapid pace. These social promotions in fact seem to be going backward. There is no consensus for what is about to happen in Copenhagen. The EU stumbles ahead even though most in Europe and Britain would vote it down if they had a chance. The whole idea of creating promotions was to ensure that people would accept an increased concentration of wealth and power. But it is not possible to start a serious world war right now and the Internet is muting the impact that economic ruin would ordinarily have.

We will leave it at this. We are in some sense, primarily an investment publication as we mentioned the other day. What investors - our kind of free-market thinking investors - will have to grapple with over the coming years is the struggle between the power elite's dominant social themes and the exposes of the Internet. Those who use our paradigm will have to decide if the power elite's "solutions" will win out or whether the Internet will increasingly cover - and uncover - the inevitable hype.

Conclusion: These will not be idle decisions. There are billions, nay trillions, riding on the acceptance of the green meme promotion. Thousands of companies will be started and hit major stock exchanges based on whether or not these dominant social themes are accepted and successfully promoted. That of course includes the continued appreciation of gold and silver - which the power elite despises, but which it has lost control of for the moment. Yes,

Labels: danger to left, Internet, talk radio

January 26, 2007

Oops, Sun does heat the earth! - Duke U

Labels: Global warming, sun spots

Those annoying emails should stop.  Some people got in as members, though I have no idea how, before I shut off access from non members.  I will watch.

---

Anyway, just an idea of where our problems come from.  This list is from the Canadian Free Press, not an American source:

Total Personal Staff members for other first ladies paid by taxpayers:
Mamie Eisenhower : 0;    1 paid for personally out of President's salary
Jackie Kennedy: 1
Roseline Carter: 1
Barbara Bush: 1
Hilary Clinton: 3
Laura Bush: 1
Michele Obama: 22

 How things have changed! If you're one of the tens of  millions of Americans facing certain destitution, earning  less than subsistence wages stocking the shelves at Wal-Mart  or serving up McDonald cheeseburgers, prepare to scream and then come to realize that the benefit package for these servants of Ms Michelle are the same as members of the national security and defense departments and the bill for these assorted lackeys is paid by YOU, John Q. Public:

Michele Obama's personal staff:
 1. $172,200 - Sher, Susan (Chief Of Staff)
 2. $140,000 - Frye, Jocelyn C. (Dep Asst to President and Dir of Policy And Projects for  First Lady)
 3. $113,000 - Rogers, Desiree G. (Spec Asst to the President and WH Social Sec for Mrs. Obama)
 4. $102,000 - Johnston, Camille Y. (Spec Asst to President and Dir of Communications for First Lady)
 5. $100,000 - Winter, Melissa E. (Spec Asst to President and Dep Chief Of Staff to the First Lady)
 6. $90,000 - Medina , David S. (Deputy Chief Of Staff to the First Lady)
 7. $84,000 - Lel yveld, Catherine M. (Director and Press Secretary to the First Lady)
 8. $75,000 - Starkey, Frances M. (Director of Scheduling and Advance for the First Lady)
 9. $70,000 - Sanders, Trooper (Deputy Director of Policy and Projects for the First Lady)
 10. $65,000 - Burnough, Erinn J. (Deputy Director and Deputy Social Secretary)
 11. $64,000 - Reinstein, Joseph B. (Deputy Director and Deputy Social Secretary)
 12. $62,000 - Goodman, Jennifer R. (Dep Director of Scheduling & Events Coord For The First Lady)
 13. $60,000 - Fitts, Alan O. (Deputy Director of Advance and Trip Director for the First Lady)
 14. $57,500 - Lewis, Dana M. (Special Assistant and Personal Aide to the First Lady)
 15. $52,500 - Mustaphi, Semonti M. (Assoc Dir and Dep Press Secretary To The First Lady)
 16. $50,000 - Jarvis, Kristen E. (Spec Asst for Scheduling and Traveling Aide To The First Lady)
 17. $45,000 - Lechtenberg, Tyler A. (Associate Director of Correspondence For The First Lady)
 18. $43,000 - Tubman, Samanth a (Deputy Associate Director, Social Office)
 19. $40,000 - Boswell, Joseph J. (Executive Assistant to the Chief Of Staff to the First Lady)
 20. $36,000 - Armbruster, Sally M. (Staff Assistant to the Social Secretary)
 21. $35,000 - Bookey, Natalie (Staff Assistant)
 22. $35,000 - Jackson, Deilia A. (Dep Assoc Dir of  Correspondence for the First Lady)
 (total = $1,591,200 in annual salaries)

Of course, either these people are no shows or they are working on other matters without review. You wonder what they are really doing.  A real journalist would look into this private army.

Labels: Mrs. Obama, staff

From today's LA Times, soon to be a recipient of TARP funds, I am sure, for support of the Ministry of Propaganda:

Reporting from Washington and Copenhagen - The Obama administration on Monday declared that greenhouse gases produced by vehicles, power plants and factories were a danger to public health, clearing the way for broad federal limits on climate-warming emissions.

The announcement by the Environmental Protection Agency is a key step in a legal process that would allow the agency to act, without Congress, to develop tough rules to control emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases that scientists blame for global warming.

"The vast body of evidence not only remains unassailable, it's grown stronger, and it points to one conclusion," said EPA Administrator Lisa P. Jackson in announcing the decision. "Greenhouse gases from human activity are increasing at unprecedented rates, and are adversely affecting our environment and threatening our health." etc etc.

The EPA is part of the Reich and, along with the LA Times, is giving the Copenhagen magical mystery tour some sort of support, though no one outside the true believers sees such a power grab as good. I have mentioned many times that the left in Europe and Russia has been using the "green" strategy since the 1960s and it works where people feel and can't think.

I am almost positive, now, about this governmental insanity as we approach the next election cycle.  As Greg says the administration is "all in" and trying to do as much damage as possible without regard for the next election. They know they are on the chopping block and don't care.  It may be Obama doesn't see himself as running again, lest he have to, now, show he is a qualified candidate to several unhappy states.

The Democrat socialists have taken care of themselves and do have some sort of leftist philosophy, though any attempt to organize it is futile, to champion.  So, they make, using the word precisely, insane decisions to reach their ends - the ends analysis, as I call it.  Common sense and logic are irrelevant when in a panic to reach an end. So far, voters with common sense and logic still are permitted to vote.

Now, if we could only have some Republicans who think in ideological terms or, at least, strategic terms beyond petty party positioning. This is unlikely, hence something new this way comes.


PS:  The LA Times does not provide a way for people to respond on its blog. Get it yet?

Labels: EPA, greens, U.S. Marxism

Professor Carter, here, on the my-car global warming even if it is cooling crisis.  Irene sent it along so I won't have to do any work.

You already know some items that I have discussed, but here is a nut-job, denier from Australia who studies deep sea cores who also discussed ice core samples, and so on, covering some 400,000 years of climate. 

He is also not boring, so I will give up.

In all, we have been on a cooling trend for the last 100,000 years of this Halocene period, the spike in 1998 is not at all unusual, the climate is static since 2000, and we are most likely heading into a cooling period, a steep one.   (Not if, when.)

Oh yes, there can't be any polar bears because the world has been much warmer in the past and they are all dead.  Here is a photo of a bear obviously drowning.

I can see why the left will have to take control of the Internet.

Labels: AGW fraud, Global warming religion

Greg pointed me to a response to an article that touted

Harvard professor weighs in on climategate

James McCarthy, a respected Harvard professor who was a former Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lead author, sent a letter to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) today stressing that e-mails stolen from climate scientists do not undermine the evidenc for manmade global warming. McCarthy is board chair of both the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

The letter reads "The scientific process depends on open access to methodology, data, and a rigorous peer-review process. The robust exchange of ideas in the peer-reviewed literature regarding climate science is evidence of the high degree of integrity in this process. The body of evidence that human activity is prominent agent in global warming is overwhelming. The content of these a few personal emails has no impact what-so-ever on our overall understanding that human activity is driving dangerous levels of global warming.”

Ooooh. There is a convincing argument:  "Because I say 'others say so.'" 

I have written several times over the past few years, that when the reality of what has been going on opens up, scientists will rise up to protect their own credibility where before they were afraid to lose their jobs. This just has to be. We need to look at data, not a UN/Barbara Boxer press release.

As a graduate student at Harvard, I was told that fields do not advance because people change their minds; rather, fields advance because people die.

Things are getting sticky for the left-control drones.  Their most recent tool, climate fear, as a way to control the world and divert billions to them, is unraveling. Hence, the above letter to Barbara Boxer, whom I am sure didn't ask for the letter to be sent, saying all is well the the emperor does really have new clothes, even if the tailor spilled the beans that he kills anyone who can't see the garb.

Below, is all you need to read on the increasingly silly, albeit dangerous, notion that man is changing the earth's temperature and killing the polar bears by increasing their population so they may run out of food, then invade Toronto looking to eat little foreign babies  (that is my guess as to the next moving argument. )

I have been publishing denier information for, what, over two years. People refused to admit the possibility that what I said was true.  They read a statistic or report, I think, and it does not register. It is like a hum in their heads.

They ask, "Were did I get that information" which exactly raises the theme of this blog.  Read the information yourself and go look it up, don't wait for a talking head who is invested in lies or works for the liars.  Don't forget, the talking head TV news readers are, in real life, dullards:

From a wiki regarding Peter Jennings: 

...He struggled academically, and Jennings later surmised that it was out of "pure boredom" that he failed 10th grade and dropped out. "I loved girls," he said. "I loved comic books. And for reasons I don't understand, I was pretty lazy."^[2] Jennings then briefly attended Carleton University, where he says he "lasted about 10 minutes" before dropping out.^[3] He also attended the University of Ottawa^[4].

Here is a response to the article above, from someone who didn't drop out of Harvard and who took the time to mention things like facts,  If course, this entry could be a big fraud, so one may want to look at he cited references, unlike those given by the UN.   Just stop saying, "Where did you read that?" 


That siad, you may find it interesting reading the original site, "The Green Blog," not a right wing site.  Click on the title.  Read the other responses. You don't find anyone supporting the fraudulent science.

Labels: AGW, fraud, IPCC, Mann, UN

Wordsmith Words: kakistocracy Top

(kak-i-STOK-ruh-see, kah-ki-)

noun
Government by the least qualified or most unprincipled citizens.

Etymology
Greek kakistos, worst, superlative of kakos, bad + -cracy, government, rule.
Usage
"Russia is proving the opposite. Late last year, the kakistocracy propping up Boris Yeltsin decided not to risk giving up power." — William Safire, Contrasting Elections, The New York Times, March 20, 2000.

So, now you have the right term to use. 

Labels: kakistocracy

Irene is doing some homework regarding places to retire, as we consider fleeing to Canada, and this is exhibit is interesting.  I also thought it was obvious that there was an inverse relationship between taxes and home prices, but I guess it isn't until there is a map. It is revealing to see the nation rates.

The only reason California has a lower tax rate is the people voted in the law limiting the tax rate.  The old days, when the state could elect Reagan as a governor.  The tax ceiling infuriated democrats.  I think the legislature can't undo Proposition 13, as it was known. (I also recall it was 3%, so the number above may reflect a practical number than the official rate.)

Look at D.C.  That is a thing to ponder: 3.76 tax rate. If you don't know, Congress controls D.C. and members happen to have real estate there. So, to address the needs of D.C., one of the worst communities in America, Congress just takes your money, rather than have a high tax rate that would include them.

So, the "red" states, in politics, are, generally, the blue states, here.  (Except for D.C. where Congress people own real estate. Perhaps, we should just have a Georgetown exemption.)

And, as we are told, the really smart people live in places such as NY.  

People from NYC, LI, NJ, and MA have taken over Vermont; if you look, you see a very real estate high rate. That is relatively new.  The interesting thing is most towns don't have: police, fire, garbage, mass transit, water or sewer department.  You may wonder where the money goes? The state has taken control of the schools away from the towns, where local people met to control their costs as the people saw fit. Socialists can't have that.

Texas is interesting.  Very high property tax, perhaps, that is the main tax, as it is in NH.  In any event, high taxes keep the prices down. 

This analysis makes sense where one is not in the working years and not injured by high income tax and over regulation, which is another map.

Those, here, in Saratoga have seen in the  past few years, realty value go up rapidly, so revenue has gone up. Since governments never expect economic cycles, they assume the same, increasing revenue flow forever, and create a budget crises when tax revenues decrease, when values go down.  Since a government never lowers its costs, Saratoga is raising its tax rate in the face of decreasing home prices (tax revenue will drop as homes are revalued).  All goverments know is to raise taxes.

The problem is, this will increase the rate of devaluation, of tax assessment, of revenue. So, the cycle speeds up: prices down and taxe rate up --- prices down, tax rate up---etc.   Not a good prospect as more people go "upside down" in their homes, which rate is 25%.  We may get a taste of what California, NY, and Florida are dealing with - insolvency coupled with "rich" targets.

My recommendation is a house boat in waters federally controlled.

Labels: real estate prices, taxes

Just a bit from a Seeking Alpha article, today.

The trend in high levels of insider selling and low levels of insider buying remain unchanged this week as executives continue to sell into the rally. Of course, they’re not the only smart money that is now selling into the rally. Institutions recently turned neutral on markets after have been bullish on equities for the last 6 months.

For the latest week insiders sold $841.9MM worth of stock while buying just $37.7MM. Notable sales include sales from Goldman Sachs executives:

A long list of executives followed, including the CEO. 

All I can say is get your estate ready for an interesting ride. The second dip is coming and Dubai may have  drawn it closer. Next year, at some point, the Fed will step into defend the dollar. At that point gold and the markets deteriorate. Gold may fall too fast to get out of the way.

A good bet, if you wish to hold gold is an ETF that bets gold will deteriorate. This is the ultimate hedge. keep the gold and win if it the price drops.  Of course, in the long run, gold will do fine, but that is a story about currency, not manic buying.

====


I made up the WTTW. 

Labels: Insiders, stock decline

As Scam #1, the notion that I am responsible for something called global warming, change, or cooling, is unwinding, let us revisit Scam #2: Swine Flu.  I have noted previously the small incidence of the flu, a fraction of the amount of illness and deaths from the normal seasonal flu,  but even those cases are a blatant fraud, as it turns out.

Take a breath and consider:

1.  On April 20, the CDC announced the swine flu pandemic was here:  4 cases, no deaths.

2.  May: WHO redefines the word "pandemic" so we can have one.  Took out the idea of deaths.  See article below, Russia dismisses this pandemic.

3.  July: The CDC STOPS testing for swine flu and directs states to stop.  Why?  Because, they say, its here, so why bother?  Therefore, NO CASE OF SWINE FLU after July IS CONFIRMED.  NONE.  This is not science, nor is it moronic; this is a fraud.

A recent blog, here, showed how the swine flu incidence was low, but even this was even wrong as NONE of those cases I included in the analysis were confirmed. None of the cases were confirmed as having happened in spite of some vaccine.  Florida, while still testing, found 8% of the reported Swine Flu cases were not even the flu.

There is no data, as CBS learned when they recently tried to figure out what is going on in each state. VIDEO  Yes, a major media outlet was pissed off.  Here, lest you forget the swine flu fraud of 1976,  is the 1978 60 MINUTES


The data that was analyzed before testing stopped, showed of the cases reported the actual number of swine flu cases ran from 1% to 30%.  Usually, on the lower end. see VIDEO.

Now, follow the money, if you wonder why this fraud continues:

1.  Big Pharma - guaranteed payment with a no liability, per your Congress.

2.  CDC

3.  WHO

4.  Doctors/hospitals

5.  Governments - control and more taxes.    There is an alleged new strain in __, which also has no deadly effects, but never mind.  The WHO stepped in and demanded the government ban all social gatherings, which has been done.  This is a continuation of the trend to make everyone a victim who needs the state. If you think this is over-the-top, try reading some history. Try the Frankfurt School, Alinsky (whose organization employed Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama).

RUSSIA:

22:0711/06/2009
MULTIMEDIA

The Spread of the Swine flu Outbreak

MOSCOW, June 11 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's chief doctor said swine flu could be treated as normal seasonal influenza despite the WHO's classification of the outbreak as a global pandemic, but advised Russians to protect themselves with masks.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared earlier on Thursday its first flu pandemic of the 21st century following an emergency meeting. The A/H1N1 virus has been confirmed in 74 countries.
The UN health body's chief Margaret Chan announced that the WHO decided to raise the pandemic alert level to the maximum of 6.

"The world is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century," Chan told reporters.

"The virus is now unstoppable," she said.

Gennady Onishchenko dismissed the swine flu pandemic as a real threat and said most patients could be treated at home. He urged Russians to follow regular hygiene routines and to wear flu-protection masks.

"It is not complicated, but it is effective - put on a mask," the chief doctor said in an interview with Vesti 24 television on Thursday. "Nobody sees this as a supernatural situation, scandalous behavior. It is a normal rule, which protects against the pandemic."

A Russian government official earlier told RIA Novosti that Russia is not overly concerned with the new pandemic.

"There is no reason for concern. The situation in Russia is under control," he said adding that only three swine flu cases had been registered so far in the country and all patients had recovered....

Labels: CDC, deception, fraud, swine flu, WHO

The Telegram's account of the conspiracy of global warming "scientists."  In any other science, these people would be collecting unemployment.

James Delingpole

James Delingpole is a writer, journalist and broadcaster who is right about everything. He is the author of numerous fantastically entertaining books including Welcome To Obamaland: I've Seen Your Future And It Doesn't Work, How To Be Right, and the Coward series of WWII adventure novels. His website is www.jamesdelingpole.com

Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming'?

By James Delingpole Politics Last updated: November 20th, 2009
562 Comments Comment on this article

If you own any shares in alternative energy companies I should start dumping them NOW. The conspiracy behind the Anthropogenic Global Warming myth (aka AGW; aka ManBearPig) has been suddenly, brutally and quite deliciously exposed after a hacker broke into the computers at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (aka Hadley CRU) and released 61 megabites of confidential files onto the internet. (Hat tip: Watts Up With That)

When you read some of those files – including 1079 emails and 72 documents – you realise just why the boffins at Hadley CRU might have preferred to keep them confidential. As Andrew Bolt puts it, this scandal could well be “the greatest in modern science”. These alleged emails – supposedly exchanged by some of the most prominent scientists pushing AGW theory – suggest:

Conspiracy, collusion in exaggerating warming data, possibly illegal destruction of embarrassing information, organised resistance to disclosure, manipulation of data, private admissions of flaws in their public claims and much more.

One of the alleged emails has a gentle gloat over the death in 2004 of John L Daly (one of the first climate change sceptics, founder of the Still Waiting For Greenhouse site), commenting:
“In an odd way this is cheering news.”

But perhaps the most damaging revelations  – the scientific equivalent of the Telegraph’s MPs’ expenses scandal – are those concerning the way Warmist scientists may variously have manipulated or suppressed evidence in order to support their cause.
Here are a few tasters. (So far, we can only refer to them as alleged emails because – though Hadley CRU’s director Phil Jones has confirmed the break-in to Ian Wishart at the Briefing Room – he has yet to fess up to any specific contents.) But if genuine, they suggest dubious practices such as:

Manipulation of evidence:

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.

Private doubts about whether the world really is heating up:

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.

Suppression of evidence:

Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4?
Keith will do likewise. He’s not in at the moment – minor family crisis.
Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t have his new email address.
We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.

Fantasies of violence against prominent Climate Sceptic scientists:

Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I’ll be tempted to beat
the crap out of him. Very tempted.

Attempts to disguise the inconvenient truth of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP):
……Phil and I have recently submitted a paper using about a dozen NH records that fit this category, and many of which are available nearly 2K back–I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2K, rather than the usual 1K, addresses a good earlier point that Peck made w/ regard to the memo, that it would be nice to try to “contain” the putative “MWP”, even if we don’t yet have a hemispheric mean reconstruction available that far back….

And, perhaps most reprehensibly, a long series of communications discussing how best to squeeze dissenting scientists out of the peer review process. How, in other words, to create a scientific climate in which anyone who disagrees with AGW can be written off as a crank, whose views do not have a scrap of authority.

“This was the danger of always criticising the skeptics for not publishing in the “peer-reviewed literature”. Obviously, they found a solution to that–take over a journal! So what do we do about this? I think we have to stop considering “Climate Research” as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal. We would also need to consider what we tell or request of our more reasonable colleagues who currently sit on the editorial board…What do others think?”

“I will be emailing the journal to tell them I’m having nothing more to do with it until they rid themselves of this troublesome editor.”“It results from this journal having a number of editors. The responsible one for this is a well-known skeptic in NZ. He has let a few papers through by Michaels and Gray in the past. I’ve had words with Hans von Storch about this, but got nowhere. Another thing to discuss in Nice !”

Hadley CRU has form in this regard. In September – I wrote the story up here as “How the global warming industry is based on a massive lie” – Hadley CRU’s researchers were exposed as having “cherry-picked” data in order to support their untrue claim that global temperatures had risen higher at the end of the 20th century than at any time in the last millenium. Hadley CRU was also the organisation which – in contravention of all acceptable behaviour in the international scientific community – spent years withholding data from researchers it deemed unhelpful to its cause. This matters because Hadley CRU, established in 1990 by the Met Office, is a government-funded body which is supposed to be a model of rectitude. Its HadCrut record is one of the four official sources of global temperature data used by the IPCC.
I asked in my title whether this will be the final nail in the coffin of Anthropenic Global Warming. This was wishful thinking, of course. In the run up to Copenhagen, we will see more and more hysterical (and grotesquely exaggerated) stories such as this in the Mainstream Media. And we will see ever-more-virulent campaigns conducted by eco-fascist activists, such as this risible new advertising campaign by Plane Stupid showing CGI polar bears falling from the sky and exploding because kind of, like, man, that’s sort of what happens whenever you take another trip on an aeroplane.

The world is currently cooling; electorates are increasingly reluctant to support eco-policies leading to more oppressive regulation, higher taxes and higher utility bills; the tide is turning against Al Gore’s Anthropogenic Global Warming theory. The so-called “sceptical” view is now also the majority view.

Unfortunately, we’ve a long, long way to go before the public mood (and scientific truth) is reflected by our policy makers. There are too many vested interests in AGW, with far too much to lose either in terms of reputation or money, for this to end without a bitter fight.

But if the Hadley CRU scandal is true,it’s a blow to the AGW lobby’s credibility which is never likely to recover.

Morning.

While I am more of a mind to worry about me and mine, as is what happens when the community dissolves, I can see a shimmer of a change.

1. Obama's approval rating is only 47%, his lowest since taking office when he was at 65%.  While his approval rating has dropped 18%, his disapproval rating has climbed from 30% to 52% in only 10 months. 

2. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's approval rating in her own state of California is only 34%. 

3. Senator Harry Reid is behind in his re-election campaign in NV by 10% ("Sue Lowden beating Reid by 10%, 50% to 40%. Lowden is chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party and the preferred candidate of the Republican party establishment.  GOP hopeful Danny Tarkanian beats Reid by seven points, 50% to 43%"). 

4. In the race for California's next governor in 2010, Republican Meg Whitman and Democrat Jerry Brown are tied at 41% each. 

5. After Pelosi's bill passed the House, the public was against the bill 54% v. 42%.  Even CA comes in at 51%, down 4% since last week.

 

So, while trying to prepare for either deflation or inflation (Greg says the government won't permit deflation),  a way to vanish before a new facism (Hilary says in America we tax everyuting that moves),  or decide upon a new homeland, there does seem a small hope.

Of course, the malfactors are taken care of, why defy those who elect you, and the new fascism will take root like a foreign weed, which is is, there is still a chance that the pendulum swing will be cleansing.  In the meantime, get out of your 401k and don't depend on the USD.

Thought I would send this along.  It is more from Nadler. I won't find a cute picture.  This is too serious. Click on the headline for the article.

Below is an account of a massive counterfeit that has been discovered. Organized sale of tungsten bars coated in gold. No one can say, now, how much gold has been stolen. 

The bust cometh, and it will be spectacular. The stories told in the press will be peculiar, since not told objectively. The headlines might be a comedy, with phony reports of foreign subterfuge, when the perpetrators are home grown.

Further, there is a plan extant, he says he has been told, that China intends to ride up the price of gold, while preventing any major blow offs, as is normal and as I noted earlier, and keep pounding the price up.  This explains the inexplicable rise in gold.  If all this is true, his earlier comments that I relayed today have been trumped.

The Chinese know that we will not raise our interest rates to protect our dollar because of the economic mess we are in. Thus, they will take the opportunity to knock it down more.  Our leaders will commit hari kari, but out of ignorance.  Maybe it is for the best that this system dissolves.

China, if this is true, is engaged in economic terrorism. Nothing less. 

The plan is to destroy the U.S. dollar and it looks like a good plan.  The only was to stop it is to suddenly raise interest rates or for other countries to start buying dollars.

A possible scenario in the near term is that the counterfeit crimes will be revealed to the media, a serious revelation. You don't know if you should buy more gold or sell in such a period. I suspect a serious sell off, but this is only a gut reaction.  These crimes may actually result in the protection of the U.S. Dollar.

If this stuff is all true, then forget about big moves and buy metals or canned hams. I sure wish I could find rhodium.


...In October, the Hong Kong bankers discovered some gold bars shipped from the United States were actually tungsten with gold plating. This is the exact same Modus Operandi as the silver clad zinc dimes from 45 years ago. History repeats itself. The parallels to mortgage bond fraud with either subprime borrowers or multiple property titles used in bond securitization is easy to spot. A consistent theme runs through the American management of finance and dissemination of fraudulent assets on a global basis. Tungsten gold bars is a feat difficult to surpass. Credit must be given for not leaving any potential for fraud untapped. Refer to insider flash trading, naked shorting of bank stocks, commodity trading on behalf of the USGovt, and much more. No disrespect is intended for the trillion$ counterfeits of superstar grade. Refer defense appropriations, USTreasury Bond sales beyond issuance, and missing Fannie Mae funds. These are legacy crimes.

Below is an excerpt from John Nadler of Kitco.com, a daily site for me. He is the boss, there; if I had $10,000 I would have been in a rhodium pool there, months ago.  That is where to be.

In turn, Nadler quotes Minyanville's Harrison (you have to see the bull and bear cartoons) whose knowledge and perspective is immediately apparent, unique in the world of car salesmen, see below.

The Nadler article, by the way, was a litany of all the fundamentals of gold, today, which are down except the tulip buyers don't care.  Much has been made of India's purchase of 200 tonnes of gold, but no one seems to absorb the fact that India's purchase, in general, is down 67%.  In this world, everything is a con and the media repeats it because they are substantively stupid.

Gold and silver are places to have been and places to go, but right now the prices don't reflect anything other than fear,  The fear won't go away, but, as with me, it is likely premature. As Harrison says, buy fire insurance just before the house burns. Next year, the FED will, some day, jump in to raise rates, in order to avoid deflation. At this point, the game is afoot. Watch the tea leaves, here. The action will be sudden, but there will be "meetings" and discussion to mull over.

At the point of defending the dollar, gold and the markets will, literally, crash, as most fundamentalist would say. Kitco says it will not be a gradual decline, but a crash as tulip buyers of all ilk jump ship at the same time. The are talking, for example, a $700 price for gold.  Stock folks see a crash down to March levels. Even Mr. Obama, who expressed a lack of concern for the markets when he was running, now worries about a "double dip" recession (if only that were the limit of all.)  Perhaps, he is slowly becoming aware of how our nation works.

The double dip would be a good time to buy a sound security and, for my part, bags of silver coins. Me, I am buying things that will go up when there is blood in the street - better early. In the meantime, you probably want to be careful of any securities investment, especially as currency talking heads write about the dollar moving to a two year rally - bad for gold and stocks. Of course, if the FED screws up and we go into deflation, that is another story. (I just read Japan announced it is in a deflation, today.  Have to check on this. )

These are too interesting times.

...We close today, with a lengthy but worthwhile read from Minyanville's Todd Harrison (he a regular on Marketwatch). Todd offers a mix of pondering where we go next, of wishful thinking that is well-intentioned, and of stark findings the underscore current conditions. Add another opinion to the growing mountain of same:

"Albert Einstein once said that the definition of insanity was doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Through that lens, the current course of fiscal and monetary policy is absolutely insane. One would hope we've learned from the past as we prepare for the future but there's little evidence we have. Consistent with previous patterns of government intervention, policymakers -- many of whom never saw the cumulative imbalances building -- have overcompensated with reactive response and created the conditional elements of the next phase of crisis.

According to Scott Reamer of New York based hedge fund Vicis Capital, global central banks and government agencies have thrown upwards of $30 trillion dollars at the markets through direct lending and indirect backstops, with roughly 65% of that coming from stateside sources. That begs the natural question of whether the needle is now pointing towards hyperinflation.

"Not necessarily," says Reamer, "If they were creating currency , that would be the most probable path and I would own any physical asset I could get my hands on. But since they're creating credit , it's an entirely different analysis with regard to how other countries will respond." That jibes with my view that we're sitting at a critical crossroads, one that will come to define the socioeconomic state of the world; the resulting dynamic may indeed be binary.

The first scenario is the continued socialization of markets, bearded nationalization of troubled institutions and inflation through dollar devaluation, punishing savers who've preserved capital. By administering drugs that mask the symptoms rather than medicine that cures the debt disease, the crisis could evolve from the percolating societal acrimony to social unrest and quite possibly, geopolitical conflict.

The other path is the destruction of debt that paves a path towards true recovery through an eventual outside-in globalization. This dictates a higher dollar and lower asset classes in the intermediate-term but creates a solid infrastructure for economic expansion thereafter. It would be a bitter pill for many to swallow but most medicine that works typically is.

The banking system, stymied with credit dependency, is not operating normally. Hidden behind a litany of bailouts, stimulus, conduits, mortgage freezes, foreclosure programs, working groups and government sponsored investment efforts are politicians attempting to engineer a business cycle that long ago lost its way. Alan Greenspan was the chief architect of this grand experiment, trying anything and everything to juice risk appetites -- including his infamous endorsement of adjustable rate mortgages -- before whispering "recession" over his shoulder as he rode into the sunset. He then handed the economic reigns to Ben Bernanke, a gentleman who once opined he would "drop money out of a helicopter" if necessary to induce inflation.

Deflation in a fractional reserve banking system means policymakers have, for all intents and purposes, lost control of the economy. It would also impact the top-tier of the societal spectrum tied to financial assets, which would be problematic for politicians and the constituencies that bankroll them. Election aspirations, however, may be the least of the concerns; this economic maelstrom is bigger than any particular political agenda.

Policymakers understand the enormous stakes given our derivative-laced finance-based economy. They've postured, positioned and proffered assurances, pulling out all the stops in an attempt to flush the system with liquidity despite the clear and present danger of a total system unwind, with currency markets possibly providing the release value. As the state of our economic union steadily deteriorated the last eight years--a dynamic masked by the lower dollar and skewed by the spending habits of a slimming margin of society--the greenback was intentionally devalued with hopes that a legitimate economic recovery would replace the debt-induced largesse that dominated this decade.

As the world reserve currency lost 38% since 2002, foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets have grown increasingly frustrated with the status quo. Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and Don Tsang, Chief Executive of Hong Kong, are among the latest leaders to voice displeasure, warning of "unavoidable risks" and "the next global crisis," respectively. Shortly before the credit mess arrived in September 2008, we warned it would manifest as a cancer or a car crash. The government responded by buying the cancer and selling the car crash, staving off a systemic collapse by inhaling the disease in its entirety. It worked, but it came at a profound cost.  

Asset classes continue to trade as a monolithic monster on the other side of the dollar. We call this dynamic "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation" in Minyanville and while both sides of the equation can decline, they would be hard pressed to rally in sync. That's important to remember, particularly as the carry trade becomes part of the mainstream lexicon.

The favored scenario of those pulling the strings is akin to a bovine relay race. The 2009 government sponsored euphoria enabled corporate America to roll mountains of debt, potentially buying itself a few more years. If the plan plays through, those same corporations will transfer the risk (through issuance) to an unsuspecting public before the next wave of crisis arrives. Rinse and repeat again and again, consistent with the definition of insanity

This progression is predicated on the rest of the world cooperating, presumably because they're unable to extricate themselves from the interwoven financial machination. The other alternatives are isolationism and protectionism, which could conceivably separate world commerce into standalone regions as nations attempt to protect their interests at all costs. While the path of deflation and debt destruction would cause paper wealth to evaporate, it would forge a path towards a prosperous future. Rich nations would pour real money -- as opposed to cheap debt -- into developing economies as a redistribution mechanism of wealth and the resulting global community would be more profitable, and dare I say safer, for generations to come.

It's not too late to reverse the curse of the lost cause of capitalism. If our policymakers make proactive decisions, demonstrate humility and take steps to rebuild a stable foundation for the future, we could avoid waking up one day to find that our policy has been altogether outsourced to foreign central banks."

A page from the NYU Professor's book, Todd. You have warned. Alas, the deaf ears are abundant, and the addiction to bubbles is hard to break. Hardly anyone listened back in 2006, either. Who cares about real-world conditions, and about eventual fallout, when prices are going up? Why, it's the only thing that matters! Aha.

Until tomorrow - keep the umbrella handy.

Labels: bubble, gold, stocks

It seems you can't embed in emails, so click here for the highlight of your day, seriously.

Below is an update on the swine flu. Putting aside the complete failure of the government to meet its own goals regarding vaccines, welcome to post office medicine,  and putting aside the lack of an explanation how people died (did the flu put very sick people over the edge or kill healthy people outright) and putting aside the likely inflation of numbers, and putting aside any comment about how many of the infected had a vaccine, below is a break down by the CDC of what is going on.

Bottom line, using the goverment's numbers:    3,900/22,000,000 = .000177.   Not a very high death rate, is it?

Now, before getting a shot (the aerosol seems to be free of mercury,) consider some vaccine contains mercury, perhaps the deadliest poison. Your government approved mercury laden vaccine for six months, after which it will be deadly again.

As serious background:  60 Minutes expose of 1976 hysteria. By 1978, 4,000,000 lawsuits based on dangerous vaccine. It is a joke to watch the propaganda, but take that awareness and look at today's hysteria. To quote 60 Minutes:  "The so called deadly flu..."  Also, note, only four "swine flu" cases were the basis of the panic, they came from Fort Lewis. (Other reported - not confirmed) Don't dismiss conspiracy theories.

FACTBOX: U.S. estimates 22 million had swine flu, 3,900 dead

Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:53pm EST

Email | Print |

Share

 | Reprints | Single Page

[-] Text [+]

(Reuters) - New estimates suggest the pandemic of H1N1 flu is far worse than an average influenza season, with at least 22 million infections and 3,900 deaths, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The new estimates are extrapolations based on detailed data for April-October from 10 states and do not reflect a worsening of the pandemic, the CDC stressed. Following are the figures released by the agency, with the median number of cases followed by the full potential range:

ESTIMATED CASES BY AGE

* 0-17 years - 8 million estimated cases, with a range of 5 million to 13 million

* 18-64 years - 12 million estimated cases, range 7 million to 18 million

* 65 and older - 2 million estimated cases, range 1 million to 3 million

* Total cases - 22 million, range 14 million to 34 million

ESTIMATED HOSPITALIZATIONS

* 0-17 years - 36,000 hospitalizations, with an estimated range from 23,000 to 57,000

* 18-64 years - 53,000 hospitalizations, range 34,000 to 83,000

* 65 and older - 9,000 hospitalizations, range 6,000 to 14,000.

* Total hospitalizations - 98,000, range 63,000 to 153,000

ESTIMATED DEATHS

* 0-17 years - 540 deaths with a potential range of 300 to 800.

* 18-64 years - 2,920 deaths, range 1,900 to 4,600

* 65 years and older - 440 deaths, range 300 to 700

* Total deaths - 3,900 deaths, range 2,500 to 6,100. Source: CDC here

Labels: CDC, mortality. mercury, swine flu

Promulgate this

There is nothing more important in your life or that of your family than to watch this and send it along. Even Tom can be right, sometimes:




As I don't seem to do will with this embed logic, which seems too easy to do poorly,  here is the url:

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMe5dOgbu40


If the Copenhagen treaty is signed, there is still a legislative review according to our Constitution, like with the League of Nations idiocy of Wilson, but I hold no dream that the Congress will act rationally.  For that matter, the way things are going, they may not even bother with the Constitution, at all. After all, no one seems to care, including Mr. Chaney,  that Mr. Obama was a dual citizen and not authorized to be president.

It is nice Lord Moncton thanks us in the past tense for being the beacon of liberty.

Labels: Barack Obama, Copenhagen, sovereignty

First, I turned off a button in the blog home that allowed anyone to comment, after another stupid sales pitch came in.  My error having it on.  Blog members can still write in, but they don't
=================

The Confused Man - Arianne Lequay

+++++++++++++

Below is an excerpt from the Elliot Wave web site.  Mr. Prechter, their guru, has a new book out, you may want to read. Its name is something like You, Too, Can Avoid Death and Destruction.  That's not the name, but you will find it with that thought in mind.


There is another book out I want to read about the death of the dollar. That may be the name. Just out, look for it, as it is written for us simple folk and offers simple folk steps, something I have been trying to work out in these pages. 


I listened to the author as I dozed the other night and he didn't hedge - it is coming and have your affairs in order.  Prechter leans to the deflation prognosis.  So, something is going to happen. If it is deflation, cash is king; if it is hyper inflation, cash is crap. Or, its deflation then inflation, which, I suppose, means buy metals after the crash.


Prechter says the false fun is over - stocks, commodities. We are in the "fifth wave" and passed the top parameter. When the collapse comes, sooner than later, the market will suffer a straight collapse, no bumps for an elegant withdrawal, if you are in stocks (401k people, think about this - do not let inertia take you down). Time to buy TIPS.


Other current Elliot Wave people read graphs differently: stocks on the way up!  Everyone has line graphs and several ties.


Mr. Prechter says the USD is in for a good two year rally. This makes sense as it has been butchered by the US. So, the dollar will come back even as we head into inflation.  We need to think about inflation while the dollar comes back; about stocks going back to early 2009 levels; or, is it a booming market until it stops. A simple idea is buy TIPS, that way you stay even. 


The Prechter/Elliot view corresponds, by the way, to a collapse in metals and the market, based upon non-Elliot thinking that goes like this: When the Fed decides to put on the brakes, as it says it will do according to Keynes, amen, by raising interest rates and taking back loans. 


At that point, or earlier if you are part of the oligarchy, the rush to gold will end and the drop in commodity prices will accelerate as carry trade geniuses realize they have to cover themselves as they jump from the window.  There will no longer be a fear of the dollar; it will be replaced by a fear of being stuck in gold. (Me, I say stay in fear of the dollar, even if it comes back.)


It may seem contradictory that I recently picked up silver coins. It is a bit, but I am paying the premium for a safe harbor.  If I am wrong and all is well, fine, I paid too much for a poor collection.  If I am right, I am much safer than a few months ago. I worry about this and I don't have children, so consider worry as a good thing.

A history from the Elliot Wave site, to show how smart they are:

February 23, 2009 Short Term Update:

"If one is aggressively bearish the stock market, having a planned out exit strategy now is not only prudent, but necessary in light of some of the sentiment readings we see."

Namely, a 3% reading in the Daily Sentiment Index, the lowest level in the 22-year history of weekly figures.

February 23 Elliott Wave Theorist:

"Ideally, the S&P should continue down into the 600's. When it's finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than later."

February 27 Short Term Update:

"The turn will come on or near March 10, 2009. Anywhere in this period may mark a turn, which will obviously be a market low."

The S&P bottomed two weeks later at 666.79 on March 9.

April 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist:

The rally "could carry the Dow as high as 10,000. Regardless of its extent, it should regenerate substantial feelings of optimism... the government will be taking credit for successfully bailing out the economy, and investors will be convinced that the bear market is behind us. Be prepared for this environment."

Flash ahead to today: The November 6, 2009 Short Term Update picks up where the April Theorist left off and presents the following close-up of the S&P SPDR Trust versus the 10-day Daily Sentiment Index.

Labels: bearish, Elliot wave, Prechter

I am busy and hadn't expected to write. I am also of the mind that reporting on the insanity is no longer of interest or use. I am insanity weary. These days, I think of my exit plan.

Nonetheless, here is some more money, regulation, and deterioration of our small businesses.  Thanks to Senator Doddhorn.

Dodd offers 'emergency' bill on paid leave for flu 

By Holly Rosenkrantz | Bloomberg News

Sen. Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn., introduced "emergency" legislation requiring companies to pay employees who miss work because of the swine or seasonal flus.

"If paid sick leave had been a reality when this pandemic began, we would be in better shape," Dodd, a member of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, said at a hearing Tuesday. "This isn't just a workers' rights issue, it's a public-health emergency."

Democrats in Congress have already introduced legislation that would mandate paid leave for illnesses generally, though lawmakers haven't acted on it as they concentrate on an overhaul of the health-care system. Some Republicans and business groups said that requiring paid sick leave may force companies to cut other benefits or fire employees.

"At a time when employers are facing unprecedented challenges, imposing a costly paid leave mandate on employers could easily result in additional job loss or cuts in other employee benefits," Elissa O'Brien, testifying on behalf of the of the Society for Human Resource Management, told the Senate panel at the hearing. "We caution against rushing to impose new mandates that will do more harm than good."

About half of private-sector workers, and three-fourths of low-wage American workers, such as school bus drivers and food- service employees, don't receive paid sick leave, Dodd said. About 80,000 school cafeteria workers aren't paid if they stay home when they're sick, and they serve about 10 million schoolchildren each day, according to Dodd.

The swine flu, or H1N1 virus, has reached 48 states, and infected as many as 5.7 million Americans, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A total of 672 Americans have died, including at least 129 children, according to a statement from Dodd....

Oh, in case you think it is a great idea that a marginal business will be forced to offer paid flu leave, remember, businesses don't pay taxes, they pass them along. This truism is lost on our minority of morons, but they seem to vote along party lines.

Eventually, as inflation heats up, money vanishes, taxes increase along with regulation, the employees can have a nice long vacation on unemployment.  One this starts to happen and the tax base shrinks, I will send you a postcard from somewhere far away.

Labels: Dodd, Marx, socialist