Editor's note: Porter Stansberry first started reporting on the debacle at General Motors back in 2007, with a "tongue in cheek" letter from the company chairman. Since then, Porter's predictions have come true. The company went bankrupt, wiping out shareholders and bondholders. Today, you might think GM's problems are behind it. But as Porter shows, things are dire…
|
The Story No One Tells About One of America's Biggest Bankruptcies |
|
By Porter Stansberry |
|
Thursday, June 21, 2012 |
|
The GM situation is a microcosm of what's gone wrong in our country.
In the June issue of my Investment Advisory, I argued that the
bankruptcy process resolved none of GM's core problems. The process was
subverted by the political establishment, which sought to protect one
class of citizen at the expense of the regional economy, GM's
bondholders, and its customers.
If we can't apply the rule of law and sound economics to fixing one of
the world's most important manufacturing concerns… it doesn't bode well
for anyone else being afforded these privileges, either.
That's why it's so important for you to understand what happened.
Most people simply don't realize that the bailout of GM wasn't a bailout
of the company. It wasn't a bailout of its shareholders, who lost
everything… or its bondholders, who lost almost everything. Where did
the money go? To the union. The United Auto Workers (UAW) ended up with
all the money.
Let me show you how…
----------Advertisement---------
The Biggest Sweetheart Deal in the American Oil Business…
One small company will collect a windfall of up to $2.8 billion from Big Oil…
And by law, you could receive the right to grab a huge cut of this deal. Click here to learn more.
---------------------------------
GM slid into bankruptcy primarily because it couldn't profitably
manufacture cars. (Yes, there were plenty of other issues, like too much
debt, investments in subprime mortgages, etc. But the primary reason it
couldn't solve these other problems was that it hadn't been making
routine profits from manufacturing cars in about 20 years.) And the
biggest single reason it couldn't profitably make cars was because its
labor costs had soared.
Well, guess what? At $56 per hour, GM still has the highest labor costs in the industry.
The bankruptcy process didn't deal with the biggest financial hurdle GM
faces, which is an enormous (and growing) unfunded pension liability.
When the company entered bankruptcy, it owed $20 billion to the trust
that was established to pay for the health care of its retired workers.
Its pension program, with $100 billion in obligations, was also
underfunded by roughly $10 billion. That's $30 billion in legitimate
claims, which the union had to present to the bankruptcy court on behalf
of GM's employees.
It could have received a mixture of cash and equity in the new GM – just
like any other unsecured creditor. But there wasn't really a bankruptcy
court. Instead, there was Steve Rattner – "the Rat," as we call him –
the crooked Democratic political operative under investigation for
bribing New York State pension officials. Obama made him the "car czar."
His job wasn't to fix GM. It was to deliver billions to the union and, thus, deliver Michigan for Obama in the next election.
Bondholders at GM were owed $30 billion, too. A legitimate bankruptcy
would have sold or liquidated the company's assets and split the
proceeds between the two major claimants, the bondholders and the
unions. GM had roughly $20 billion in tangible assets, plus probably
another $10 billion in intellectual property. These sums could have
either been liquidated or put into a new company, with the equity split
between bondholders and unions.
Not surprisingly, the current market cap of the new GM is $34 billion,
right around the same number that could have been raised in a
liquidation. The bankruptcy court should have given the unions roughly
$15 billion worth of cash or new equity and the same thing to
bondholders.
Everyone would be square. And the company (or at least the company's
assets) would have been freed from the stranglehold of huge debts and
pension obligations.
Taxpayers shouldn't have paid a dime in this process because, frankly, it's none of our business.
Remember… the purpose of bankruptcy isn't to repay creditors. They're
screwed. They're not getting all their money back because they bet on
the wrong horse. That's how capitalism works. That's the price of
liberty – you're free to make bad choices.
The purpose of bankruptcy is to free productive assets from the burden
of debts that can't be repaid or refinanced. We do this because it's
good for society, not because it's good for creditors. Had the
bankruptcy been handled legitimately, GM's assets would have ended up in
the hands of better entrepreneurs. Its workers could have found new,
productive jobs at a rate the market would bear. (Other carmakers are
paying $47 per hour – these aren't bad jobs.)
Yes, GM's retirees, its pension program, and its bondholders would have
taken a hit. But they wouldn't have walked away empty-handed. They would
have been the owners of a profitable company, operating debt-free and
without the burden of almost endless obligations to a pension fund.
But that's not what happened. Instead, the government injected an amazing $50 billion into the company and, at last count, has lost roughly half of it.
How did taxpayers lose $25 billion on a company whose total tangible
assets were only worth $20 billion? How did bondholders lose almost all
of their $30 billion, too? And most importantly, how did our country end
up with a GM that can't earn a genuine profit because of never-ending
obligations to its pension fund?
I think you probably know, dear subscriber. The Rat did what he was
being paid to do. He delivered billions and billions of dollars to the
union… amounts that will never be recovered… billions that will never be
found.
Here's what we do know about where the money went… Bondholders got 10%
of the new GM – about $4 billion worth of stock at the time of the IPO.
However, they weren't allowed to sell until much later, so that value
dropped about one-third by the time they could have actually liquidated.
Thus, bondholders ended up getting about 10 cents on the dollar. The
unions, on the other hand, got paid 100% of the pension liability –
about $10 billion, which was simply passed onto the new GM and has now
grown to $13 billion.
In addition, the union's health care trust got 17.5% of the new equity
(worth about $6 billion), plus $9 billion in preferred stock and notes.
These securities are not only worth more, but they will also likely end
up with essentially all the company's cash flows for the next decade.
In total, the unions walked away with about $28 billion in cash and
stock (out of $30 billion owed). Not surprisingly, that's almost exactly
the amount of money that's gone missing from the government's accounts.
The union also retained a position of absolute control over the
company's earnings.
In short, the unions got paid 93% of what they were owed and will likely
continue to have a legal claim to virtually all of GM's cash flow. The
bondholders got a few pennies. The taxpayers lost $25 billion. And GM
still can't make a real profit. Bravo!
I'm sure folks as virtuous, thrifty, and honest as the good people of
the UAW will prove to be excellent stewards of GM's assets and
reputation. Surely, GM's future has never been brighter. And Obama's
legacy as the savior of Detroit is assured…
By the way… the numbers above are all real. Most of the stuff you see
reported about GM is not. There's a good reason for this, of course… The
government continues to own a large portion of GM's stock, and GM is
one of the largest advertisers in the U.S.
Nobody wants to take on those two powerful interests.
Take, for example, what Morgan Stanley's GM analyst, Adam Jonas, told the Wall Street Journal
earlier this month… He claimed GM had gotten rid of 20% of its roughly
$100 billion total pension obligation by spending only "$3 billion."
Imagine if that were true!
If the company was able to resolve $20 billion in obligations by
spending $3 billion now, well… that would dramatically improve the
financial standing of the business and probably double or triple its
stock price. Strangely, that's not what happened. Instead, the credit
ratings agencies warned they "might" have to downgrade GM's debt. And
the share price continued to fall…
I don't know Adam Jonas. And I don't know that the paper is quoting him
fairly. But whatever the case, nothing could be further from the truth.
GM unloaded $26 billion in future pension liabilities by contributing
$25 billion in pension fund assets, $1 billion in cash, and paying $3
billion in an insurance premium. So what actually happened is that the
company put virtually all of its earnings – $4 billion – toward its
pension (again) and saw the total unfunded liability drop by a mere $1
billion, from $14 billion to $13 billion.
Assuming the rest of these liabilities could be extinguished at the same
rate, it would cost GM roughly $50 billion to wipe out all its
remaining pension liabilities. Strangely, neither Jonas nor the Wall Street Journal saw fit to mention that part…
I'll leave you with these two simple questions…
If we can't count on the media to keep us informed about the major
problems of our country's most important companies… and if we can't
count on the government (which still owns 26% of GM's equity) to deal
with its pension obligations honestly and fairly… what does this say
about the likely future prospects of GM? What does it say about our
country?
Regards,
Porter Stansberry
P.S. My full analysis of the GM situation appeared in the June issue of my Investment Advisory.
Inside, I showed readers why the "bailout" of GM has been catastrophic
for Detroit. I showed that commercial real estate has fallen by an
additional 60% over just the last five years. And I predicted the real
estate market is foreshadowing what will eventually be another
catastrophe at GM. You can take a risk-free trial to my newsletter – and
have full access to that issue and all my other research – here. |
Further Reading:
DailyWealth classic: Back in 2007, Porter wrote one of
the most popular essays of his career. In it, he predicted the
bankruptcy of General Motors (GM) – two years before the company filed
for Chapter 11… making him one of the first analysts in the business to
do so.
After reading GM's annual press release that year, Porter concluded:
"Either the people in charge of GM don't want you to know how the
business is doing, or they themselves don't know. Regardless, the result
is a disaster in the making…" Read the full essay here: A Letter from General Motors' Chairman. And read his follow-up here: More from the Chairman of General Motors… |
|
A PERFECT CASE OF "BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE NEWS"
Shares of Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) have tripled over the past month.
The company expects a decision from the Food and Drug Administration next Wednesday
on its experimental, prescription diet drug, lorcaserin. In early May,
an FDA Advisory Panel gave the drug a "thumbs up." Since then, the stock
has skyrocketed. And expectations are high for further gains after
final approval is announced. Maybe too high…
At $10 per share, ARNA commands a market capitalization of $1.8 billion.
The stock trades at 165 times sales and 40 times book value. There is
no price-to-earnings ratio since the company has never posted a profit.
And the stock's chart has gone parabolic.
ARNA should get final FDA approval for lorcaserin next week. Looking at
the chart, though, this setup could turn out to be a perfect case of
"buy the rumor, sell the news." ARNA may be headed lower from these
extended levels.
– Jeff Clark
 |
|
Double-digit annual returns in the world's best business…
I like this sector. And I think Porter's analysis is spot-on. Long term, this company should be a winner.
Click here to get immediate access. |
| Friday, June 15, 2012 |
|
Forget Iran… The seeds of WWIII are being planted here |
| "History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes…" |
|
| Wednesday, June 13, 2012 |
|
The six ways the government is planning to steal your money |
| And the steps you can take now to stop them… |
|
| Friday, June 15, 2012 |
|
A secret international treaty has even liberals calling for Obama's impeachment |
| "We've gone from a nation of laws to a nation of powerful men making laws in secret…" |
|
| Tuesday, June 19, 2012 |
|
The brilliant Thomas Sowell reveals the simple explanation behind Obama's confusing policies |
| This could be the most revealing thing ever written about the president… |
|
| Monday, June 18, 2012 |
|
Euro CRISIS: A Greek insider's shocking take on what could happen next |
| "In the end, this is the only solution I can see…" |
|
|
Advertisement
IMPORTANT NEWS FOR S&A READERS: Why S&A was just threatened with a lawsuit
We were recently threatened with a lawsuit – by one of the biggest companies in America.
We've put together a special presentation detailing what happened… and what this means for you. Click here for the full story. |
|
What to Do If the Stock Market Falls 20% Next Month |
|
By Dan Ferris |
| Wednesday, June 20, 2012 |
|
| If you see stocks like rich people see stocks, you'd be very comfortable… and probably very excited… |
|
|
The Most Accurate Investment Forecast Ever |
|
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud |
| Tuesday, June 19, 2012 |
|
| Some of the predictions are not pretty. But based on his previous forecast, they are worth considering… |
|
|
Invest with the World's Greatest Investor – For $0.77 on the Dollar |
|
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud |
| Monday, June 18, 2012 |
|
| This is one of those situations that sounds too good to be true… but it ACTUALLY IS TRUE… |
|
|
An Incredible Type of Gold Company |
|
By Matt Badiali |
| Friday, June 15, 2012 |
|
| Business is good for cashing golden royalty checks these days… |
|
|
Gold Guru Says, "I've Shifted My Gold from GLD to This…" |
|
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud |
| Thursday, June 14, 2012 |
|
| The man who follows gold stocks more closely than anyone we know – has shifted his "investment gold" out of GLD and into this… |
|
|
|
|
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home