Iran blinks

John Batchelor is back on WABC.  He is, by far, the best primary source of  information on the middle east in our media.  For more on JB hit HERE

Sunday night, he had an interview with the author of a book to be published next year called "Chechen Jihad."  Here is some fresh input.

First, in 2006 the Chechnyan fundamentalists planned to kill all the leaders of the G8. They had the plan in place and a truck filled with explosives.  Unfortunately, the Russians found out and five days before the assassination, the Russians killed all but one of the plotters.  They got the last one three months later. 

With this mess about them, like pants around their shoes, the Iranians realized they had gone to far - they being the keystone to all terrorist action in the region. There followed high level negotiations that included the U.S. The Iranians, to make things short, caved, Bodansky reported. They agreed to back down their violence, especially in Iraq. 

The recent NIE estimate was part of the deal.  That is, the surprising announcement was part of the planned thaw - a U.S. admission that Iran may not be so bad, after all. The U.S. has been permitting all manner of contact by Iraq with Iran now and speaking quite warmly of its contacts. Of course, the media and critics never pass beyond the surface. See last item below.

The recent peace meeting in the U.S. was impressive in the glad tidings expressed by all, except for Iraq who didn't show up, at least on the highest level.  They did not show up because Iran told them not to as the Shiite big brother.  Indeed, Iran showed and reported it had wonderful chats with Rice and Bush. The violence continues to decrease and Sadr's militia is moving more to the "middle," which seems to mean peaceful. Sadr is somewhat off to the side looking for a way to become a political power in the new paradigm.

From other sources, Sadr's bad-guy strongmen are being removed, if not killed. The Sadr army is killing many who engages in terrorism (this is from AKI news service).  Sometimes, they turn the bad guys, including two Iranian operatives, just last week, over to the U.S. along with the mines and weapons the bad guys had. 

Next?  Very soon, the author reported, there will be an open rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran.  Buy puts in oil companies, if you want to make a killing. The smart money, an analyst friend tells me, is already on oil dropping fast.

A reason Iran may be interested in working things out, other than having the Russians (and, perhaps the other 7) assassinate its leaders or Israel and the U.S. bombing the crap out of them is their economy is at a tipping point.  It it is just about dead - one of the leading oil producers in the world is now rationing gas. There is no more room to play the trickster.

This day, Sunday, PM Brown announced the war in Iraq is over and the soldiers are coming home as soon as possible. Maybe, this is connected. The Sadr people have been busy in Southern Iraq, taking over, it seems, from the British. 

So, either the occupation is going to settle down or, as one pundit put it, the British are fleeing and have lost to Sadr.  Pundits are not usually sensitive to nuance and the British don't walk away from a fight or peacekeeping effort. 

So, go sell your oil stocks, if this tale makes sense.  The more I think about recent events, the more likely it seems.  If you think about it, why would the U.S. publish its strategic intelligence estimates?  Or, why did Mr. Bush say the analysts do a good job, rather than look to prosecute whoever released the information? 

Critics of the administration complain the Bush crowd have stopped down the flow of information, yet do not question the easy release of this apparently sensitive data that could be used against them. Previously, the administration said it would not release NIEs. People are so excited about the notion of another big intelligence error, that they miss the entire exercise. What we have here is another example of Bush being dumb like a fox. (Oh, or his diabolical staff dictating to him their evil, oil-based plots, if that is your pleasure.)

e.g.: 

Why Was the NIE Released?....Part 2
washingtonmonthly.com Found 6 days ago
WHY WAS THE NIE RELEASED?....PART 2.... Three weeks ago DNI Mike McConnell said flatly that he didn't plan to make public any of the key findings from the upcoming National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program. Today, in a move that took everyone by surprise, the key judgments were released. Why? Earlier today I speculated that it might have been due to congressional pressure. Spencer Ackerman doesn't think so: An aide to Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), the chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, says that Rockefeller — the obvious culprit in any Senatorial intelligence push — didn't press McConnell to release the NIE's key judgments.