Global Warmooling

The recent talk in the media is that "global warming" has taken a holiday for seven years and will not wake for ten or fifteen years. The spin, which I find tempting to accept, is that the global warming hysteria was ill-founded. (Can it be hysteria if it is right? I think so.)

The truth is that the warming has stopped since 1999, but we need a good decline to return to a place that will let us breathe easier. Using a long-term scale, we see that the high air temperatures have been here long ago, just as the ice age started, which many predict is the case now. Of course, this is just one measure, but we need to start somewhere.

The mid-Holocene, roughly 6,000 years ago, was generally warmer than today, but only in summer and only in the northern hemisphere. More over, we clearly know the cause of this natural warming, and know without doubt that this proven "astronomical" climate forcing mechanism cannot be responsible for the warming over the last 100 years, so says a NOAA page. For larger viewing version of the graph, please click here . Graph courtesy of Kerwin et al., 1999, complete scientific reference located here.

The last 100 years saw, when viewed on that scale shows a run up to 1999 (Mann's al gore ythm was mathematically wrong and the hockey stick graph was not as bad as reported). When viewed on the above scale, it is just a blip in the blue mess run up since the mid-Holocene.

The shorter scale is the cause of the hysteria. Here are shorter scales that help.



The last graph is interesting, but I couldn't find a key. I suppose we have topped the 11th Century; I wish I knew what the colors mean in the Osborne and Briffa graph. Also, are we comparing apples to apples with these numbers?

Unfortunately, the earth runs on a different time frame than its inhabitants. We won't know if the trend line is down for sometime. For that matter, are we starting an ice age, which paleoclimatolgists argue? Finally, the affect of orbits and physics is clearly the major influence, though the one page nicely reported this does not explain the last hundred years. It would be nice to know how they got to that point, "without doubt," other than a nod to the grant powers.

In any event I am putting away my goggles, for now. I will look at snow shoes next year and look to buy an old Fiero (great mileage.)