Gene's Footnotes

I have never been impressed by the messenger and always inspect the message, which I now understand is not the norm. People prefer to filter out discordant information. As such, I am frequently confronted with, "Where did you hear that...." Well, here you go. If you want an email version, send me an email.

October 26, 2011

Your bank account

Think of a witty image here, if I were not
using Verizon/Samsung services.  I think
a guy pushing a wheelbarrow of cash would work.


The M2 supply -- that is the money in circulation plus travelers checks, savings, and small time deposits -- is $9.3 trillion on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Federal Reserve.
 
The U.S. has 8,133 tons of gold worth about $477 billion. In order to cover the M2 supply 
1. the gold price would need to hit $35,000 OR
2. the government would have to drain $8 trillion out of the system OR
3. the U.S. would have to buy almost all the 165,000 tons of gold in the world, including jewelry.

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We are living in an illusory world of paper based on an unthinking trust.  Maybe it is in everyone's best interest to not see the Emperor is naked, but once it is clear that he is, little remains.  Talk about a run. [a good spot for a funny streaker photo]

U.S. companies reported some good profits, but recall they are firing employees which provides more profit until you run out of inventory and orders. Major companies are restructuring this quarter. Apple and Amazon reported disappointing returns. Besides, the profits are in dollars. We are doubling down on our illusion of money. Also, after time, you get to sense the media con when it is turned on. It is on.  I should add that the various exchanges have PR rooms that release news to talking heads and editors. The information is supplied to the PR offices from floor traders - duh.

Consider retrenching, hard assets, food, barter, and so on. It can't hurt.

I recently bet on the Euro failing. This is as a sure bet as I have ever made. I may have gotten in the day before the turn. [Want in:   EUO which gives your 2x your money as the Euro declines - or takes it, if you guess wrong.] 

Europe is finger pointing and playing PR, like our White House. This is not a plan. Greece is insolvent; Germany has a quiet plan to leave the Euro; Italy and Spain are on the edge. A major French bank has collapsed after recently passing its "stress test." Stalling makes things worse. It is like pulling off a huge band aid slowly, stopping when it hurts.  Without governments, resetting moves quickly and punishes the stupid and greedy, but in a fascist environment, the government works for big money folks.

We are talking about sovereign defaults, not company failures. 

U.S. banks are exposed to derivative loss from Europe; no one outside the banks know the extent of this exposure, but it understood that it is huge.

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