Gene's Footnotes

I have never been impressed by the messenger and always inspect the message, which I now understand is not the norm. People prefer to filter out discordant information. As such, I am frequently confronted with, "Where did you hear that...." Well, here you go. If you want an email version, send me an email.

January 24, 2012

Grab a rock near the edge



The WLI indicator seems the precise indicator to the movement of S&P, or stocks in general. One must allow for emotional reactions, of course, but the trends are dead on. The WLI, World Leading Indicators, is from the Economic Cycle Research Institute. 




The WLI has already hit the -10 level of past recessions. It did so in a fast run down. To the left is the 2008 financial meltdown. Then the WLI went to -30! One can project without any brains, at all, that the green line is coming down (after suckers buy stuff.) Of interest, is mid 2009, it looks like the GDP and PR kept the S&P up.  This makes sense after the wipe out of 2008. Things seemed better. Look at the GDP now.


Then, there is




Chips companies live in cycles, but the month by month and average changes indicate a large cycle. Another green line that will fall. 
Another item to consider is the combined North American rail volume of last week, compared to a year earlier is down 4.%!  Trailers and containers on the rails is down 8.8%!
The ECRI (graphs above) has projected a recession is inevitable. 
The coming recession, of course, will not be a "normal" cyclical one, as we are watching Europe collapse in slow motion, China is having difficulty, and our president transfers your children's money and blocks the 40,000 jobs of the Keystone XL pipeline. Sometime, in the not distant future, our money will begin its inevitable decline and our interest rate, accordingly, will rise. At that point, foreign investors stop buying our Treasury Bills (last warning) and the emperor will be standing in the parade, suddenly aware he has no clothes. 
I have mentioned ways to defend yourself. It is now "post time." Doing nothing may result in extreme loss. If you insist upon keeping your 401k and IRA, then find investments that are removed from the U.S. Dollar. You may not be able to as the government wanted to keep your money prisoner, in the self-dealing hands of Wall Street. You are paying much of those big bonuses that anger you.


If you can, liberate your money and use it to buy solid property - a solid future. 











 

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