Warming Takes A Holiday

I listened to ABC news on the radio last night and heard that global warming has slowed, but last year was still one of the hottest years in history, whatever history is. The sound bite was from some English character, so it sounded important. How the comment qualified as world news is sadly understandable these days of editorializing 24/7.

So we have another "true believer" filter at work. Later, on the Art Bell wannabe all-night show, there was excitement that a new sun spot was found, which means to people who think they can predict the nature of the sun, new solar events were coming, which will raise the earth's temperature via the ocean.

Clearly, the two disembodied voices were happy about the prospect of heating of the ocean- odd no? They can yell, "I told you so!" as they run from the rising sea. For my part, I would be happy about increasing warmth as I can't afford to move south right now, but I can't say I know the mind of God, so I won't bet on the solar cycle changing rapidly to the positive slope.

I have not come across any warmers who previously mentioned the sun as being any, let alone the the main influence on earth's temperatures. We looked at the recent studies a few months back, if you recall, about the failure of warming models to include the sun. (Recall my witty remark about cow farts causing Mars to warm....no? No matter.)

There is no point beating this rug (I want to sound like Huckabee and Fred.) Just thought I would throw in a reality graph. If you are not in the know, the spelling "Algore" is a goof on Mr. Gore who seems to slur his names together. Funny what people focus on. Me, I marvel at his belly, as a way to deflect self awareness.

If the graph were a stock chart, I would predict an upward movement as a base is forming and the bottom of the down movements have a positive slope. That being my stock pick, bet on the opposite.

Below, an update on NYS degree days, which I can't define only to say degree days are a way to compare days, months, years.[Heating degree-days are the number of degrees that the daily average temperature falls below 65° F.]

You will see we are much cooler this year than last, but warmer than average since 1970. Already, January is cold, though as a write there is a respite. Unlike our radio experts, I am not going to hope for freezing weather to prove there is no warming. First, hope is irrelevant; second, I am not invested in a glacier religion; third, I am not crazy, probably.

What I found interesting was October 2006 was apparently really cold, relatively speaking. Don't recall that.

P.S.: I just read an scientific article (meaning boring and I could not follow much of it) that goes to the point that there is no such thing as a global average temperature. It is a mathematical non sequitur. But, lets not beat that rug, as we have no dog in the fight and a rising ocean lifts all boats.

Albany

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Period:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	2284	2098	2354

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	203	210	264
12/22	286	196	253
12/15	265	184	238
12/08	283	241	222
12/01	205	126	203
11/24	222	195	185
11/17	187	91	168
11/10	176	141	154
11/03	145	137	139
10/27	67	162	125
10/20	63	112	108
10/13	55	96	91
10/06	18	77	70

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Month:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	271	500	463
November	816	608	741
December		918	1085
January		1160	1257
February		1275	1070
March		1027	889

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Buffalo

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Period:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	2111	2053	2361

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	216	189	263
12/22	252	175	251
12/15	257	150	238
12/08	265	260	222
12/01	215	92	203
11/24	208	194	185
11/17	155	136	168
11/10	180	124	151
11/03	127	155	135
10/27	61	163	119
10/20	43	113	103
10/13	55	87	86
10/06	3	75	68

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Month:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	228	495	442
November	772	604	737
December		857	1081
January		1115	1256
February		1290	1110
March		923	961

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Massena

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Period:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	2808	2601	2964

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	220	250	329
12/22	346	223	315
12/15	360	187	295
12/08	329	278	271
12/01	252	169	247
11/24	255	221	222
11/17	186	144	200
11/10	206	162	182
11/03	168	174	165
10/27	92	183	148
10/20	97	132	131
10/13	108	110	112
10/06	37	99	92

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Month:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	412	596	563
November	927	751	886
December		1062	1343
January		1420	1559
February		1503	1332
March		1184	1122

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

New York City

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Period:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	1392	1121	1590

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	141	126	207
12/22	192	124	195
12/15	181	118	180
12/08	215	181	168
12/01	139	68	151
11/24	147	131	135
11/17	119	36	119
11/10	121	79	103
11/03	78	66	87
10/27	19	99	72
10/20	10	45	58
10/13	19	26	44
10/06	0	14	31

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Month:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	91	213	249
November	530	342	524
December		600	836
January		806	1008
February		981	861
March		682	713

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Syracuse

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	2242	2033	2434

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	207	197	271
12/22	269	180	259
12/15	275	159	245
12/08	288	242	227
12/01	212	107	207
11/24	221	197	188
11/17	178	116	170
11/10	182	124	153
11/03	130	143	138
10/27	67	150	122
10/20	55	110	107
10/13	47	91	91
10/06	11	76	72

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	243	482	460
November	806	604	748
December		851	1113
January		1169	1296
February		1290	1131
March		1033	959

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Definition: Degree-days are relative measurements of outdoor air temperature used as an index for heating energy requirements. Heating degree-days are the number of degrees that the daily average temperature falls below 65° F.

Additional energy price inquiries should be addressed to Judeen Byrne at (518) 862-1090, ext. 3514