True Belief in Global Warming: Errors in Prediction are not Model Errors (?)
I was checking on the current snow storm in the N.E., tonight, and came across a fine exemplar of how true believers avoid logic.
First paragraph: OK current events show "significantly slower" global warming than predicted in ALL 114 IPCC models. Yes, everyone UN committee has failed to reflect reality. But wait, there is more! The reality, further, is there has been NO slowing of global warming, there exist global cooling. True believers see a cooling trend as a slowing of a warming trend. The need to justify a religious belief has given us: because temperatures are falling, the warming trend is slowing. (I am not making this up.)
Why: because the truth exists and stray data must be explained.
Please examine the graph below. There is a colorful splattering that represents every one of the 114 models from our genius academics. Notice the circle?
Yes, the one on the bottom of the colorful patch. Every model shows real temperature ABOVE reality. Not one model made a politically incorrect error and demonstrated temperatures below reality. By itself, this condemns all the models to more than being ill conceived - they are written to demonstrate a warmth that does not exist.
Indeed, every model since 1989 places temperature above the real temperature.
The headline, in true believer form, announces the models are not erroneous, they are just all wrong.
At the end, tow scientists are quotes as saying IPCC models do not over estimate the warming my Nissan causes. That mean, of course, they are merely defective.
First paragraph: OK current events show "significantly slower" global warming than predicted in ALL 114 IPCC models. Yes, everyone UN committee has failed to reflect reality. But wait, there is more! The reality, further, is there has been NO slowing of global warming, there exist global cooling. True believers see a cooling trend as a slowing of a warming trend. The need to justify a religious belief has given us: because temperatures are falling, the warming trend is slowing. (I am not making this up.)
Why: because the truth exists and stray data must be explained.
Please examine the graph below. There is a colorful splattering that represents every one of the 114 models from our genius academics. Notice the circle?
Yes, the one on the bottom of the colorful patch. Every model shows real temperature ABOVE reality. Not one model made a politically incorrect error and demonstrated temperatures below reality. By itself, this condemns all the models to more than being ill conceived - they are written to demonstrate a warmth that does not exist.
Indeed, every model since 1989 places temperature above the real temperature.
The headline, in true believer form, announces the models are not erroneous, they are just all wrong.
At the end, tow scientists are quotes as saying IPCC models do not over estimate the warming my Nissan causes. That mean, of course, they are merely defective.
Climate Model Error Not the Reason for Recent Differences between Forecast and Actual
February 4, 2015; 7:37 PM ET
The rate of global warming since the start of the millennium has indeed been significantly slower than all of the 114 relevant IPCC climate model predictions. However, the gap (error) between what was predicted by the models and what was actually measured was not due to systematic errors of the models as some AGW sceptics have argued.
Global land/ocean surface combined temperature trend since 2000. Image courtesy of NASA GISS.
Not surprisingly, the gap is due to the fact that there are always random fluctuations in the Earth's climate, according to Jochem Marotzke, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, and Piers M. Forster, a professor at the University of Leeds in the UK.
The two researchers reached their conclusion through a comprehensive statistical analysis, according to the EurekAlert report.
The team also found that climate models do not generally over-estimate man-made climate change and do not react too sensitively to increasing atmospheric CO2 (greenhouse gas).
Image courtesy Nature 2015/MPI for Meteorology.
Labels: delusional concept, erroneous models, illogic, IPCC fraud, Nature Magazine, no global warming, true belief
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