The road map playing out?

I mentioned recently that Iran's leaders were motivated by the possibility of the Spetsnaz visiting to kill them, and if the past is prologue, their families, into rejoining the civilized world.

Reports claim that a road map exists to create the new relationship, one were Russia sells uranium to Iran without much protest from Mr. Bush. This road map would provide face-saving.

That said, consider current events as part of an elaborate game of chess and ignore the confusion of the major media which can't seem to figure out what is going on, other than trying to spin events as failures by President Bush, though they don't seem to be coherent in that knee-jerk reaction.

From the BBC:
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Iran 'could restore ties with US'

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has said relations with the US could be restored in the future. In a speech to students, he said the time was not right to restore ties, but if it were ever in Iran's interests he would endorse such a move. The US and Iran cut their diplomatic ties after the 1979 Islamic revolution and the subsequent takeover of the US embassy by militants in Tehran. Relations have been further strained by the row over Iran's nuclear programme. "We have never said these relations should be suspended indefinitely," said Ayatollah Khamenei. But he said now was not the right time because it would be harmful to Iran. Restored diplomatic ties would provide "an opportunity for US infiltration, traffic of their intelligence agents and espionage of Iran". Final word Last month, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Washington was open to better relations with Tehran if it stopped enriching uranium. Ayatollah Khamenei maintained his country's uncompromising line on the nuclear programme, saying his country would not halt enriching uranium. Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful electricity generation only, but the US and several European allies fear Tehran is trying to build nuclear weapons. The Ayatollah's words are unlikely to appear conciliatory in Washington and London says the BBC's Middle East analyst Roger Hardy. Rather, they were probably directed at a domestic audience ahead of parliamentary elections in March. The Ayatollah was also underlining the fact that he, and he alone, has the final word on foreign policy, says our analyst

Iran boats 'threatened US ships'

Five Iranian speedboats harassed three US navy ships at the weekend, approaching them and radioing a threat to blow them up, US officials say.

The incident happened in the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route. The US said their ships were about to open fire when the Iranian boats withdrew.

The White House warned Iran against "provocative actions that could lead to a dangerous incident in the future".

Iran played down the event, describing it as an "ordinary occurrence".

"This... happens for the two sides every once in a while and, after the identification of the two sides, the issue is resolved," foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said.

Official media also reported the US statement about Iran's allegedly threatening behaviour with scepticism, implying that Washington was exaggerating the incident.

'Serious provocation'

The speedboats, believed to belong to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, came within about 200m of the US vessels, Pentagon officials said.

"I am coming at you. You will explode in a couple of minutes," the Iranians said in a radio transmission, according to US officials.

The Iranian boats were operating at "distances and speeds that showed reckless, dangerous and potentially hostile intent," said Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman.

He said at least some of the boats were visibly armed.

US sailors assumed battle stations and the captain on one of the ships was about to order an attack when the Iranian boats turned away, dropping unidentified objects in the path of the vessel, US officials said....

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The boat guys of Iran are a bit independent of the the political leadership, so who knows what they had in mind. The thing to notice is how the incident is waived away by Iran. There was no claim of U.S. violation of sovereign waters, etc.

Of course, Iran has a long term view, something our party system and Hollywood mentality seems to make impossible, so if there is an accommodation, it could be done as a feint.

The problem for the gang leaders in Iran is that the people are now connected to the outside world more than ever and the introduction of the West, of Iraq's experience, will subvert the medieval foundations of fundamentalism. The young in the cities already know the West is not the Great Satan and, over time, if this feeling reaches the Iranian outback then the key support for the hard liners will wander away.