Gene's Footnotes

I have never been impressed by the messenger and always inspect the message, which I now understand is not the norm. People prefer to filter out discordant information. As such, I am frequently confronted with, "Where did you hear that...." Well, here you go. If you want an email version, send me an email.

November 30, 2011

Not Making This Up

A real seminar announcement from the ethical Penn State:
An Ethical Critique of the Climate Science Disinformation CampaignDear Attendees of COP-17:
On Tuesday, November 29th, in a seminar organized by Penn State University and the University of Washington on the ethical dimensions of climate change join us to look at two issues.
One, an ethical analysis of the climate change disinformation campaign. We will examine whether this is a new kind of crime against humanity?
Second, we will look at the piratical significance for negotiations in Durban if climate change is understood to create human rights violations. Tuesday, November 29th, 1PM – 5PM,The University of Kwazulu-Natal,Howard College Campus Howard College Lecture Theater 
Donald A. Brown
Associate Professor Environmental Ethics, Science, and Law,
Director,Collaborative Program on Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change, Rock Ethics Institute,
Penn State University
126 Willard,
University Park, Pa, 16802
717-802-xxxx (cell); 814-865-xxxx (office)
dab57@psu.xxxx
Throw open the window and yell, "I'm mad as hell and I won't take it anymore."

I think I may be part of the disinformation campaign and these idiots are going to meet over mineral water to determine if I am guilty of a crime against humanity, something like covering up child abuse or lying about scientific findings. Who knows, the UN may indict me.

Seriously, this preposterous positioning should now be crystal clear as fraudulent or crazy. Most of what is passed around for science is exactly the same only hidden behind, what the lying scientists call it, a "fudge" factor.

Now, consider what inbred gibberish you hear from the brand name schools along these same lines.


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November 28, 2011

Bernholtz Line: we have passed into the danger zone

Readers already know that I am recommending a slow panic on a personal level and activism on the political level.  To my mind, it is certain that we are in for a hard fall that breaks through the floor.

The only way to stop it would be to elect a Tea Party Congress and a President not afraid of using a scalpel. I do not think Messers. Gingrich and Romney are smart enough to be vicious.  Perhaps, I am wrong.  Once that happens and the scalpels are out, then a one-time tax and/or a voluntary contribution would be make sense, but not if the spenders are still in power. Who wants to give money to a junkie?


Peter Bernholz (Professor Emeritus of Economics in the Center for Economics and Business, University of Basel, University of  Switzerland)  seems to be the man to quote these days. His take, see below, is that in the 12 largest hyperinflationary events, the alarms sound when a government crosses the Bernholtz "line" which is when governmental debt is 40% of its expenditures. The U.S. passed that line last year.  We are at 42% and rising. Japan is in its eighth year, the music is about to stop, and there is no chair left. I read an analysis that Japan will have a good 2012 because it is responding to the nuclear disaster. Short sighted. 


In the meantime, the Democrats want to increase taxes so they can increase expenditures. They say the Tea Party people are mean. The GOP elite nod their heads in the back. The dementia of European socialism has hit the U.S. with a powerful force.  It seems the new purpose of government is to pay money to people.  The demented continue on a path even though they see is has never worked. [There is the concurrent argument that collapse is the intent of the left.]


We have a marriage that is going bad. Dad has three jobs and sees the credit card bills exceed his ability to pay, hence the interest rates will go up as his credit worthiness goes down. Mom is mentally ill and spends her life buying things so the kids will like her. She goes to lunch with her friends wearing her new clothes. They all live in a fancy house with a 40% mortgage. Mom hides her credit card bills.  


The children and Mom think Dad is mean and selfish.  There is no solution in asking Mom to show some logic, she is ill.  Children are children. So, Dad has to act boldly even if his actions are hated. Dad is working toward a heart attack and has to deal with the situation.


Below, is a good starting point:
...The first question anyone will ask is: why doesn't the US simply cut spending? While this is probably the correct solution, it is the least politically desirable. As we've witnessed throughout Europe, austerity leads to massive social unrest. Any politician who takes money away from special interest groups and government departments is putting a target on his/her back. [So, we need to put one on their back if the refuse.]
The chart below is the kingpin of this article in that it demonstrates the growing connection between votes and government spending. Fully 60% of government spending is a form of social welfare that is paid to the individual citizen. In other words, the government needs to keep making more and more of these payments to keep constituents happy. The US government has backed itself into a corner.
Hyperinflation is a political issue. It happens when a government is forced to spend money it doesn't have. And when it can no longer borrow to fill the gap, it turns to the printing presses. Once the cycle has started, it becomes self-reinforcing. Based on research by Peter Bernholz we are dangerously close to that tipping point:
There have been 28 episodes of hyperinflation of national economies in the 20th century, with 20 occurring after 1980. Peter Bernholz (Professor Emeritus of Economics in the Center for Economics and Business (WWZ) at the University of Basel, Switzerland) has spent his career examining the intertwined worlds of politics and economics with special attention given to money. In his most recent book, Monetary Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships, Bernholz analyzes the 12 largest episodes of hyperinflations – all of which were caused by financing huge public budget deficits through money creation. His conclusion: the tipping point for hyperinflation occurs when the government’s deficit exceed 40% of its expenditures.
Hyperinflation is the child of fiscal policy, and monetary policy is the plug that fills the fiscal holes. The hyperinflationary wheels are set in motion, but it's not too late to change course. I think that until restraints on spending are evident the bull case for gold (and other metals such as silver (SLV), platinum (PPLT) and palladium (PALL)) remains intact.
Bottom line, when a government can't control spending the risks of hyperinflation rise and the case for owning gold strengthens.

The there is a difference to the current challenges. The GDP can no longer overcome the governments taxation and regulation, so the massive jump in Gross Federal Debt is met with an inverted GDP, not a rebounding one. Why?  One reason is that the governmental expense is to buy votes with social programs, not feed the economy. One result it the government hands out money then immediately acts to water it down.  [Yes, prices inflation is rampant, though the government does not track food and fuel so it reports everything is fine.]


Bretton Woods agreement - when Nixon ended the gold standard. This enabled the US to run budget deficits to pay for wars and growing entitlements.
History has repeatedly shown that when politicians have few restrictions they will spend until a country is bankrupt. Today, one of every three dollars that is spent by the US government must be borrowed.

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November 18, 2011

Ron Paul

Here is a link to a long speech by Ron Paul in 2008.  LINK

He is exactly right about the Constitution, the states,  individual freedom, and the natural tendency of people toward tyranny.  I recommend you watch, even if it is on and off.

Early on, he said that once a person is aware of the reasons behind revolution to save the republic, he has a moral obligation to act, unlike those who are not aware.

Those who have been programmed by the mockery of Paul or who believe his foreign policy is crazy, a common Republican viewpoint as he is a threat to the establishment, take the time to see who he really is. 

His thoughts are those of our founders and we have been so weaned away from personal responsibility that he can be mocked, but ... listen

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Snapshot of American Opinion

I am depositing here the headlines from Rasmussen Reports.  The headlines alone demonstrate the country is not as advertised by major media.  What is interesting is the nature of the questions.

In any event, we see the dichotomy between the oligarchy and the people.  The people are getting information outside TV and the NYT, so the media control is drying up.  Obama is moving to control the Internet, but he will not have any success in time for the next election.  If the FCC decided to exercise control next year, the public reaction would be massive.  Politicians are smart about politics, so unless they are in a desperate mode, they will not make a Hitlerian move at this time.

BTW I use Rasmussen because it is very accurate.  It beat every other poll in the 2008 election.

G


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November 17, 2011

Quintessential Example of America's Subversives

Below is a quote from a Tea Party email.  You will find the quintessential example of what is wrong with the country.

In one person, Elizabeth Warren, you find the amalgam of the subversives: rich, academic, brand school, elitist, and pandering to the socialistic impulses of the masses. Warren gave up a $600,000 a year job teaching one class to be an operative for President Obama. She is interesting in that her background starts out normally. She studied to be a speech pathologist, then went to Rutgers law school.  Upon graduation, she worked from home writing wills until she got a teaching job at Rutgers.

She kept on teaching bagging FIVE law school jobs and wound up advising Harry Reid on the idiotic bail outs. I am sure she is a knowledgeable bankruptcy lawyer, but that does not mean she is supposed to create bankrupts in the same way a criminal lawyer does not promote crime.

She is somehow (probably waiver in the Obamacare act, see below) a federal employee, now, running for the governorship of Massachusetts in 2012 with leftist endorsements:
EMILY's List, the nation's largest resource for women in politics [who must support abortion,] has endorsed Warren saying, "Elizabeth is a champion for progressive values and a fighter for the middle class".[35] She has also drawn strong support [from the Democratic fund raising organizationActBlue.[36] 

Our major challenge in this era is piercing the veil of corporate stupidity of fellow voters. The academics have done their job in creating a generation of clods.  As I noted previously, the current younger generation is the FIRST in our history where their reading level is lower than their parents.  Rent the old version of the film, The Time Machine and wait for the Eloi. At the left is our hero talking to a future version of a drone of Occupy the City.  (The British "Wall St.")


We should required a simple test before one can be a voter.  Say:

1.  "What happened in the U.S. during the early 1860s?"

2.  "Circle what does not belong:  The President, The House, The Senate, The Federal Reserve, All belong."

3.   True or False: The Constitution established the powers and rights of the states.

You figure, one wrong and you get an expense paid emigration holiday to Greece.

...Elizabeth Warren explained that the rich are people who build factories but aren't grateful enough to pay their fair share...
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau refused a Freedom of Information Act request to release her salary, but we do have the salary ranges for two assistant directors of sub-offices at the CFPB.
The Assistant Director at the Office of Financial Empowerment, whose job is "developing and implementing policy and programs that empower low and moderate income and underserved consumers to make better informed financial decisions" has a salary range of 185,000 to 247,000 dollars.
The Assistant Director at the Office of Older Americans, (apparently senior citizens is now politically incorrect) also has a salary range of 160,000 to 235,000 dollars ... and his or her job involves "Working with the Associate Director and Deputy Associate Director of Consumer Education and Engagement, as well as senior leaders from across CFPB."...
Just how many senior leaders, directors, associate directors and deputy associate directors are there at a single consumer agency? When you find out let me know. But the CFPB has offices in four major cities, pays relocation costs and promises "a highly competitive compensation and benefits package."
...Here's a hint, the Dodd-Frank bill didn't just establish the CFPB, it also created the Office of Financial Research with a neat little caveat exempting them from pay schedule limitations
"COMPENSATION- The Director, in consultation with the Chairperson, shall fix, adjust, and administer the pay for all employees of the Office, without regard to chapter 51 or subchapter III of chapter 53 of title 5, United States Code, relating to classification of positions and General Schedule pay rates."
In case you happened to miss that, it was only somewhere around the 1000th page under Section 152 D (2 ) right behind the case reading, "Beware of the Barney." It's an ironic note in a bill that fusses a bit about executive compensation when they're private sector executives, but creates an organization with open ended salaries for government employees.
Oh and if you're still worried whether Elizabeth Warren has enough to eat, her Harvard salary was around 632,000 dollars. Her workload? Teaching a class on contract law twice a week. It's not exactly shoveling coal in a coal mine. Class warfare it turns out is a game for the rich.

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November 16, 2011

Crisis mode is now, crisis is later

From a stock company news article.  I have been going on about this for some time, so I thought a third party's take would help, as it agrees with me.  Send this around, especially to anyone in Congress. The White House is useless.  They want a collapse, as you must see by now. The current debt "negotiation" is a joke.  See the pig below.  More than that, the Democrats want a failure so they can say Republicans are "do nothing" and want to starve children.  The country?  Oh, please.  Grow up, we are talking about politics, not the real world.
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Europe Still Headed For An Epic Financial Collapse
28 comments |  November 10, 2011  |  includes: DRR, ERO, EU, EUO, FXE, ULE, URR
   

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. In just a matter of days, two of Europe's most venerable leaders have been toppled. George Papandreou was the third member of the Papandreou dynasty to be prime minister of Greece. Silvio Berlusconi had dominated Italian politics for nearly two decades. But now they are both heading out the door and the international media have been reporting on their resignations with the kind of enthusiasm that is normally reserved for sporting events. "Down goes Papandreou! Down goes Berlusconi!" If you didn't know better, you would almost be tempted to think that some of the recent news reports were describing a boxing match.

But this is what happens when debt problems spiral out of control. It is the leaders who take the fall. So will the resignations of Papandreou and Berlusconi help anything? Of course not. Europe is still headed for a financial collapse of epic proportions...

The yield on 10 year Italian bonds (probably the most important financial number in the world at the moment) is now up to 6.95% [after going over 7%- Ed.]. Never before in the euro era has the yield on Italian bonds been as high as we have seen this week. So why is this important? Well, the reality is that Italy simply cannot afford to service its massive national debt when yields are this high.

We are officially in the danger zone. Carl Weinberg, the chief economist at High Frequency Economics, recently said the following about what would happen if Italian bond yields go up into the 8% to 10% range: If it has to pay those yields to finance itself, Italy is dead, and the sovereign crisis just blew up.
So watch that number very carefully over the next few months. Italy is being called "too big to fail, too big to save". There is no way that Europe can afford to let Italy crash, but there is also no way that the rest of Europe can put together enough money for a full scale bailout of Italy...
Many believe that the departure of Berlusconi is going to pave the way for brutal austerity measures to be imposed on the Italian people.

Suddenly, it very much feels like we are watching a replay of what has happened in Greece over the past couple of years. Just check out the following excerpt from a recent article in the London Evening Standard:
The Italians feel they've been humiliated by having to accept that monitors from the IMF will be arriving in the country this week to oversee a rise in pension ages, a sell-off of state assets and new rules to make jobs less secure.
...The Italians are definitely going to agree to some pretty significant budget cuts. But if bond yields keep rising, they are going to wipe out all of the savings from the budget cuts and then some. This is why I keep preaching about the horror of the U.S. national debt over and over and over. If you don't deal with it when you can, eventually interest rates rise to unbearable levels and a horror show quickly unfolds.
Anyway, right now Italy has a debt to GDP ratio of 118%. If it keeps expanding that debt it is going to result in a financial nightmare, but if they try to implement strict austerity measures it is also going to result in a financial nightmare. They are damned if they do and they are damned if they don't.

...Greece is a financial basket case, and unless someone gives them gigantic piles of money for free that is going to continue to be the case. A year ago, the yield on 2 year Greek bonds was a bit above 10%. Today, the yield on 2 year Greek bonds is over 100%. If you want to see what a financial meltdown looks like, just check out what is happening in Greece.

The rest of Europe is in panic mode too. For example, France is desperate to keep its AAA credit rating. In an article for the Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard described the austerity measures that France is implementing in an attempt to head off a debt crisis of their own:
The belt-tightening plan -- the second package since August, taking total cuts to €112bn -- include a 5pc super-tax on big firms, a rise in VAT on restaurants and construction, and cuts on pensions, schools, health, and welfare. It is the latest squeeze in a relentless campaign of fiscal tightening across the eurozone.
In the end, all of this is too little, too late. Europe is heading for a date with destiny. They have spent themselves into oblivion and now they are going to pay the price. Some members of the financial community fear that a full-blown crisis could erupt at any moment. For example, according to Business Insider, Colin Tan of Deutsche Bank recently said that he believes that it is possible that "we could be in full crisis mode" by the time the week ends...The situation with Italy feels increasingly like one that has little chance of materially improving until some extreme pressure is put on someone to act. It may not come to a head this week but the signs are not good that we can avoid an extreme situation emerging soon.

For those of you that are freaking out about now, don't worry too much. A full-blown crisis is not going to happen this week. But time is running out. And when Europe comes apart, it is going to have a dramatic impact on the United States as well.

According to an article in the Financial Post, the Federal Reserve made the following statement in a report about a survey that it just released:
About one-half of domestic bank respondents, mostly large banks, indicated that they make loans or extend credit lines to European banks or their affiliates or subsidiaries
Big U.S. banks have a lot of exposure to European debt and to European banks. When the financial dominoes start to fall, a lot of those dominoes are going to be in the United States. One of the biggest dangers to be concerned about are all of the credit default swap contracts that U.S. banks have written on European debt. Just check out what a recent article posted on the website of MSNBC had to say about that:
U.S. banks have written about $400 billion in CDS contracts on European sovereign debt, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Those payouts would be triggered if Greece or Italy defaults. Because financial institutions are not required to report their CDS holdings, little is known about which banks or investment firms are on the hook, and for how much.
As I have written about previously, there is a very good chance that the world could be facing a massive derivatives crisis at some point in the next five to ten years. If you hear the news talk about a "problem with derivatives" or a "derivatives crisis" then you will want to pay very close attention. Over the past 30 years, the global financial system has constructed a gigantic mountain of debt, risk and leverage unlike anything the world has ever seen before. At some point the whole thing is going to come crashing down. When it does, it is going to affect the entire globe. A huge storm is coming. Get prepared while you can.
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You may as well make some money with this knowledge.  Even in a "mode" currencies will spike and dip.  When things turn ugly, the stock market will be like remind us of musical chairs.

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November 11, 2011

Last Chance

Listen to the following link.

It is an ad to sell a financial service. That said, you do not have to buy anything to get the point. (Some is free)  Listen to what Mr. Lombardi has predicted for the last ten years. He nailed every major move before it happened; most likely you dismissed any such projections as whacko (I am just licking wounds.) The fat days are over and the fat can't believe it.

If you have a plan, you don't need his service - just think!
Graph of Real US GDP        
percent per year

I have gone on ad nauseum as to what to do and will not add to this entry. Simply: dollar, no; fixed loans, yes; stocks, no - unless they go up with inflation; bonds, absolutely no.

If you want to hedge against a collapse, not convinced but worried, buy some ETFs betting against the dollarand/or market.

Note, for a short while, the dollar will do well as Euro money comes in.  Personally, I am betting my little stake against the Euro. After a serious move, I will be against the dollar. Holding money in a bank is deadly.

Coffee and peanut butter, hell yes.

I think I am going to drop by the local coin shop and buy junk silver as I have extra cash.

Below is a hard copy of the talk, but it is easily digested following along.  Please listen. There is no excuse to dismiss the concern of collapse. None. More than listening, share this blog.

Most of us are prisoners of inertia.  We go to work, go home, eat, go to work. This is fine if you have no debt, gold, and a solid income source. Almost NO ONE fits this category.

Not much I can add, I just wish to urge seriousness. You ignore the coming problem at the risk of your family, your property, and yourself.

Gene
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Mr. Lombardi:  "The U.S. is technically bankrupt..."

So, Congress gave the president, who, as I have been saying for three years, intends this collapse, more money to spend.  He has won his objective of destroying our economy.  Next, his goal is socialism, he thinks, so we have rioting in the streets now by dilettantes. Of course, he is being used by the fascists and he probably thinks he is more powerful than they.  Hitler worked with the fascists.  

There is no will in Congress to act to prevent the effort to collapse our system. They do not even see it. When they do, it will be too late.  Take care of your own, now, and vote every statist, socialist, Marxist, vague "liberal," and imbecile running dog out of office next year, at every level. It will be too late to stop the slide, but the worst thing is to have an FDR making things worse doing the exact wrong things. (Another blog to come.)




His first five predictions have already come true!
Critical Warning Number Six
Fail to heed this final warning at your own risk!

Dear Reader:
Something very big will happen in America within the next 180 days.
It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008.
For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.
It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything else we’ve seen since the Great Depression.
I feel so strongly about the critical warning I’m about to give you, I’ve decided to document it in this audio-video presentation. And I’ve labeled this a controversial video, because most people will not like what I have to say…they will find it hard to believe until they see all the facts as I present them.
My name is Michael Lombardi. You may have heard of me. Maybe you are one of the hundreds of thousand of investors who get my daily Profit Confidential column.
Or maybe you’ve heard of my company, Lombardi Publishing Corporation. I started it back in 1986. It’s served over one million customers in 141 countries since then.
Over the past decade, I’ve been widely recognized as the predictor of five major economic events.
Here they are for you in black and white:
In 2002, I started advising my readers to buy gold-related investments. Gold bullion sold for less than $300 an ounce back then. In fact, in 2002, I put all of my retirement money, and all of my wife’s, in gold-related investments. I’ve been pushing gold for almost 10 years now.
In 2006, I begged my readers to get out of the housing market. I have nothing to hide. This is the exact e-mail alert I sent to my readers on March 1, 2006:
The proof the party is over in the U.S. housing market could not be clearer to me.The price action of the new-home builder stocks is telling the true story—these stocks are falling in price daily and the media is not picking it up. The latecomers to the U.S. housing market may end up looking like the latecomers to the tech-stock rally that ended so abruptly in 1999.”
Remember, I wrote the above in 2006 when the last thing on people’s minds were declining real estate prices.
In late 2006, I started predicting that the U.S. economy would be in a recession in late 2007. Here’s what I said back on November 13, 2006:
“It’s disappointing more hasn’t been written on the popular financial sites and in the newspapers about the real threat of a recession happening in 2007. I want my readers to be fully aware of my economic opinion: I wouldn’t be surprised to see the U.S. economy in a recession sometime in 2007. In fact, I expect it.”
Again, I wrote this back in late 2006—and everyone thought I was way off…until the actual recession hit. 
By the spring of 2007, I was giving dire warnings to my readers about the economy. On March 22, 2007, I sent this e-mail dispatch to my readers:
“Over the past few weeks I’ve written about subprime lenders and how their demise will hurt the U.S. housing market, the economy and the stock market. There’s no escaping the carnage headed our way because the housing market and subprime business are falling apart. The worst of our problems, because of the easy money made available to borrowers, which fueled the housing boom that peaked in 2005, have yet to arrive.”
I was warning about the severe global recession we experienced in 2008 and 2009 long before anyone else.
And I totally predicted the 2008 economic massacre that later become simply labeled the “credit crisis.” On November 29, 2007, I wrote my followers:
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the other major stock market indices finished yesterday with the best two-day showing since 2002. I’m looking at the market rally of the past two days as a classic stock market bear trap. As the economy gets closer to contraction, 2008 will likely be a most challenging economic year for Americans.”
Years after I wrote the above, it was widely recognized that October 2007 was the top for the stock market. And, yes, 2008 was the worst year for the U.S. economy since the Great Depression.
Finally, I correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 2008 and early 2009. I even wrote an obituary on the stock market in the fall of 2008 that made me somewhat of a forecasting legend:
Here’s what I e-mail-blasted to over 100,000 people on October 6, 2008:
“A Stock Market’s Obituary: It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. After a strong and courageous battle, the Dow Jones fell victim to a credit crisis and finally succumbed on Friday, October 3, 2008, when it fell decisively below the mid-point between its 2002 low and its 2007 high.”
The Dow Jones Industrial fell approximately 40% after I wrote this now famous “Stock Market Obituary,” finally hitting bottom on March 9, 2009, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 6,440.
Then…at the depth of the dark days of March 2009, I sent an e-mail alert to my thousands of readers and told them to “jump into the stock market with both feet. “
I turned bullish on stocks in March of 2009 and rode the bear market rally from 6,440 on March 9, 2009, to 12,876 on May 2, 2011—a gain of 99%. On May 2, 2011 I told my readers a stock market crash was headed our way. From May 2, 2011 to October 4, 2011, the Dow Jones Industrials fell 2,472 points.
To recap my big five predictions that all came true, I:
  1. Told my readers to get into gold in 2002;
  2. Told them to get out of the housing market in 2006;
  3. Predicted the recession of late 2007;
  4. Told  my readers to get out of stocks in the fall of 2008; and
  5. Told my readers to get back into stocks in March of 2009.
I didn’t spend the last five minutes of your time telling you about my five key predictions so I could pat myself on the back. Far from it.
In fact, I’m a humble person who prefers a low-key profile. I have a Master’s Degree in International Finance from one of Europe's oldest universities. Most importantly, I’m a successful businessman with a deep love of economic analysis and the stock market.
What I’m about to tell you, my prediction number six, which is about to happen, is so off the wall, so controversial, I didn’t want you to think it was coming from some kind of quack. It’s coming from someone with a proven track record at making economic and financial forecasts.
Let’s fast forward to November of 2011, where we are today.
The economy is slowing dramatically. The unemployment rate in America is going up, not down. Manufacturing is growing at its worst pace in 12 months. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP, is drying up. A glut of foreclosed homes still overhangs the housing market.
The United States is on the cusp of falling back into a recession. Some will call it a new recession. I will call it “Recession Part II.” But this is not the real problem.
While my colleagues will dance around the issue, while other economists will not utter the words, I will put it in writing:
“The U.S. is technically bankrupt.”
Our budget deficit this year will be $1.3 trillion. Our official national debt exceeds $14.5 trillion and this past summer Congress gave the Obama Administration permission to increase our debt to $16.4 trillion. Our unofficial national debt, when you take into account unfunded liabilities and entitlement to our citizens, is closer to $100 trillion.
By the end of this decade, according to the White House’s own prediction, the official national debt will surpass $20.0 trillion—not including off-balance-sheet items like old-age security, Medicare, and other government promises to its citizens.
And there’s also hidden government guarantees not on the government books…
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee half the residential mortgages in America. Who owns both of these companies now? Why, it’s the U.S. government. They “censured” both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on September 7, 2008.
In effect, the government either owns or guarantees half the outstanding residential mortgages in this country. According to data compiler CoreLogic Inc., 5.67 million home mortgages in the U.S. were either in the foreclosure process or delinquent last month, exposing our government to even more losses.
Politician after politician has failed to reduce government spending. Their belief is that spending more money will fix the economic problem. Well, they’ve spent trillions since 2008 and our economic problems are about to get worse.
The U.S. government and the politicians that run it are addicted to spending more money than the government takes in. If we look at it conservatively, and only look at the government’s “official” figures, by the end of this decade, our national debt will be about 150% of our GDP—about the same level it was after World War II.
Why we’ll never get out of this hole
After World War II, America became a superpower. Our manufacturing base grew dramatically; the industrialized revolution was so great that the American dollar replaced gold as the reserve currency of other world central banks. There was a U.S. job boom.
Today, what do we have in America to carry us into the next boom? Nothing. The Internet isn’t creating jobs. Manufacturing, it’s gone to Mexico, India and China. I doubt George Washington ever envisioned a future where Americans would be suffering so much. It’s embarrassing, but true: Over 44 million people in this country are using some form of food stamps! (Source: National Inflation Association)
America, the Empire, is history. The Standard & Poor's downgrading of the U.S.'s credit rating this past August 5th, 2011 is just the beginning.
Going back in time a little…
In an e-mail blast to thousands of my followers on July 21, 2005, I said,
“The U.S. lowered interest rates in 2004 to their lowest level in 46 years. And what did Americans do with their access to easy money? They borrowed and borrowed some more, investing the borrowed money into real estate. Looking ahead, perhaps the Fed’s actions (of 2004) will one day be regarded as one of the most costly errors committed by it or any other banking system in the last 75 years.”
I was exactly right.
Artificially low interest rates are actually causing us harm
Interest rates have remained so low for so long that inflation will become a serious problem for America in the months and years ahead. With the price of gold having risen 500% in less than a decade, gold is screaming, “inflation ahead!”
How does the government and an economy deal with inflation? Inflation is dealt with via higher interest rates. Mark my words: The artificially low interest rate policies of the past few years will come to hurt us in the form of hyper-inflation and sharply higher interest rates.
It will get worse
My prediction is not only that we are headed into Recession Part II—my prediction is that this next recession will also be much worse than the 2007-2008 recession and that it will hit as deep as the Great Depression.
You see…
Our government has no money left to bail us out during the next recession. The government is over-extended—if it was a business, it would be bankrupt right now.
The Federal Reserve has kept the economy alive the past two years by keeping its printing presses running overtime.
Let’s face two important facts.
The Fed can’t lower interest rates below the zero they are at today. The more money the Fed prints, the greater the risk of inflation, and the higher long-term interest rates will eventually move, stifling the economy.
Let’s move to the stock market
Did you know there is a striking similarity between the years 1934-1937 and 2008-2011?
Look at these facts:
The stock market crashes in 1929. Eighty years later, in 2008, it does the same thing.
The bear market rally that started in October 1934 lasted until August 1937—35 months—and took the Dow Jones Industrial Average from a level of 90 to 185, a gain of 106%. The Dow Jones then plummeted and didn’t recover until seven years later, 1944.
So similar it’s frightening: The bear market rally that started in March 2009 has lasted 32 months so far and has resulted in the Dow Jones Industrials rising close to 100%.
If the current bear market rally follows the same path as the bear market rally of 1934 to 1937, we have about three to six months left before the next phase of this bear market gets underway, ultimately bringing stock prices below their March 2009 lows.
This time around, for reasons I’ve just explained, the after-effects of the next leg of the bear market could be much worse than the Great Depression.
At this point, I assume you are sitting there, watching and listening to this audio-video presentation and saying, “Okay, Michael, what you say is stark and frightening. But it makes sense, the way you’ve laid out the facts.”
“So what do I do as an investor and
consumer to protect myself?”
The good news is that you could protect yourself from the economic devastation headed our way over the next six months. The better news is that, if you position your portfolio properly, starting today, you could actually make money during the next devastating down leg of this economy, while others struggle like never before.
Here are my five core beliefs about what’s headed our way and how I plan to actually profit from them.
1. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar that started in early
2009 will accelerate as the U.S. economy deteriorates.
After World War II, our government did a masterful job at convincing foreign central banks they should have U.S. dollars as their reserves instead of gold bullion. Today, 70% of world central banks have adopted the U.S. dollar as their official reserve currency.
As the value of the greenback erodes under a mountain of debt and coming rapid inflation, courtesy of too many dollars in the financial system (thank you, Federal Reserve), foreigners will be dumping dollars and moving away from a system where the greenback is the official reserve currency.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Shorting U.S. dollars is too risky and complicated for most of my readers. But there is a simple, easier way to make money as the U.S. dollar continues to devalue. There is an ETF you can buy that goes up when the U.S. dollar declines in value.
This ETF is in the currency that I believe will rise the most against the U.S. dollar over the next two years. No, it’s not gold. It’s a fiat currency that is up close to 30% against the U.S. dollar over the past 24 months. It’s a currency of one of the economically strongest countries in the world.
You put your money in this ETF, sit back, do nothing, and watch the value of the U.S. dollar fall as inflation and the national debt rise, and just watch this investment rise in value as the months go by.
My analysts have recently completed a research report called The ETF Set to Skyrocket in Price as the Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar Continues. We have hundreds of hours invested in researching, compiling and writing this report. My company plans to sell this report for $95. You can get it for free.
2. Gold prices will continue to rise.
When we look at the price of gold bullion today in inflation adjusted terms, it would need to be trading at $2,250 an ounce to be equal to its January 1980 price high of $850 an ounce.
But my public predictions about where gold prices are headed have been much higher. I’m expecting gold to trade at $3,000 before the bull market in the yellow metal is over.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Here’s an important fact I want you to be aware of:
After reaching an all-time record high of $1,921 an ounce on September 6, 2011, gold bullion prices have fallen back.
But we’ve been down this road many times before! In early 2003, the price of gold bullion fell 16%; in the summer of 2006 the price of gold fell 21%; from the spring to the fall of 2008 gold prices fell 28%; in the spring of 2009 gold prices fell 15%-- and each time the price of gold bullion recovered and moved higher by year’s end.
In fact, for 11 years running the price of gold bullion has closed each year higher in price than it started the year. The recent weakness in gold bullion prices (more like a correction in an ongoing bull market) is a tremendous opportunity for smart investors.
I’m a big bull on gold. Rising inflation, a debasing U.S. dollar, out-of-control government spending, and a currency printing press that never seems to stop will continue to push the price of gold higher.
But when I look at gold, if it moves from $1,700 or $1,800 to $3,000 an ounce over the next five years, as I expect it to, my gain will be close to 100%—as an investment, that’s not enough for me. I’m gunning for much bigger profits than that.
The big winners of the gold bull market will ultimately be the gold mining stocks. Look at this way. If a gold company’s cost to produce one ounce of gold is $900, at a price of $1,800, they are making a 100% profit. But, at price of $3,000, they are making a profit of 233%—and the stock market will reward the stock by multiples of 233%.
I’ve found a security that goes up in value when the stock prices of junior and senior gold producers rise. We started following it at $30; it trades at $60 today. If gold bullion prices go to only $2,500, this security could triple in price to $180.
My analysts have recently completed a research report called Single Best Leveraged Play for the Gold Bull Market. We have hundreds of hours invested in researching, compiling and writing this report. My company plans to sell this report for $95. You can get it for free.
3. The euro is as done as the U.S. dollar.
I’m blessed to be able to visit Europe once or twice a year to check on the economies of various European countries. Let me tell you firsthand, things are much, much worse in Europe than we read in the mainstream media.
On October 27, 2011, the euro zone leaders said they would bail out Greece, with European banks taking a 50% haircut off the value of their loans to Greece. This means Greece has technically defaulted on its debt. I believe Spain is next. Italy is not far behind.
Austerity measures are a difficult sell in Europe. This summer, Greek police needed to use tear gas to disperse 20,000 protesters at Greece’s Parliament House, as citizens demonstrated against the government’s wage cuts and tax increases. By October 19, the organized protests grew to 70,000 people strong.
Every morning, I wake up and ask this one question: when will Germany come to its senses and pull out of the euro? After all, Germany is the only real engine of the European Economic Community. Greece’s GDP…it’s less than 10% of Germany’s GDP.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Sept 15, 2011
The euro has declined steadily against the U.S. dollar. I actually envision a time when the richer European countries will tire of bailing out the poorer European countries (it’s actually happening right now), when each country will just go back to its own currency. Ultimately, the euro will die, and with it the economies of the weaker European countries: Greece, Spain and Italy.
There’s a stock you can buy that goes up in value as the euro declines in value. The stock currently trades under $18—I see a $30 price tag on it this year.
My analysts have recently completed a research report called Making Money from the Sovereign Debt Crisis: How to Achieve Massive Profit from the Collapse of the Euro.We have hundreds of hours invested in researching, compiling and writing this report. My company plans to sell this report for $95. You can get it for free.
4. Inflation will become a real problem in America.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index (“CPI”) is running at 3.9% per year.
While few are talking about it, inflation is a real problem in America. That’s what the rise in gold price has all been about: Gold is screaming: “Higher inflation ahead!”
Thanks to years of monetary policies that promoted artificially low interest rates and printing presses churning out dollars in overtime mode, hyperinflation and American sovereign debt issues will become the biggest obstacles for the United States for the remainder of this decade and well into the next decade.
After falling for 30-years, short-term interest rates are bottoming out. The long-term 10-year U.S. Treasury, it’s yielding a pathetic 2%-- a 50-year low. All cycles come to end. And I believe we are near the end of a long-term down cycle in interest rates.
While it may difficult to see today, and as crazy as it may sound, the government will be forced to raise interest rates to fend off inflation—just like it did in the early 1980s..
Higher interest rates will also put the proverbial remaining nails in the coffin known as the U.S. housing market.
Now you see why I said at the very beginning of this presentation that it’s not for the faint of heart. Imagine our government, the economy, housing prices and the stock market all collapsing at the same time?
But, for smart investors, there is more than just hope. As history has shown us, where there is fear, there is also profit.
We’re just putting the finishing touches on a special report that reveals an ETF that rises in value when interest rates rise. It’s called Inflation Hedge: Serious Profits from the New Multi-Year Trend of Higher Interest Rates. We have hundreds of hours invested in research, compiling and writing this report. My company plans to sell this report for $95. You can get it for free.
5. The stock market will ultimately test its lows of March 2009,
bringing the Dow Jones down 46% from where it sits today.
Yes, this is my final core belief: The bear market rally in stocks will lose steam somewhere in the next three to six months and move straight down to test its March 2009 lows.
Phase One of a bear market brings stock prices down sharply. That’s what happened when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from 14,164 in October 2007 to 6,440 on March 9, 2009—a tumble of 54%.
Phase Two of a bear market is when the bear lures investors back into stocks. The bear gives investors and analysts the false sense that the economy is improving and it’s okay to own stocks again. That’s where we are today. The bear did a masterful job at convincing investors to own stocks again…and, presto, the Dow Jones got back to 12,000.
But the bear market is getting old and “long in the tooth” as they say. If I compare this bear market rally to the 35-month bear market rally of October 1934 to August 1937, we have about three to six months left before Phase Three of this bear market gets underway—ultimately bringing stock prices below their March 2009 lows.
How am I going to make money from this? Easy: I’m not going to short the market, because that’s too risky for most of my readers. I’m not going to buy put options, because they are too short in nature for Phase Three of the bear market.
What I plan to do is to buy a stock that goes up in price when the stock market falls. The stock is very liquid, it trades on a major American exchange, and it has already jumped to $26 from $20 in the past 60 days. If the market tanks like I believe it will, this stock will easily move to $100, maybe even $125.
My analysts have recently completed a research report called Lombardi’s Secret Stock That Goes up When the Stock Market Goes Down. We have hundreds of hours invested in researching, compiling and writing this report. My company plans to sell this report for $95. You can get it for free.
Putting it all together
At this point, you’re probably saying: “Okay, Michael. Everything you’ve said so far makes sense. Now, how do I get my hands on these five new reports you and your analysts have just completed?
The ETF Set to Skyrocket in Price as the Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar Continues
Single Best Leveraged Play for the Gold Bull Market
Making Money from the Sovereign Debt Crisis: How to Achieve Massive Profit from the Collapse of the Euro
Inflation Hedge: Serious Profits from the New Multi-Year Trend of Higher Interest Rates
Lombardi’s Secret Stock That Goes up When the Stock Market Goes Down
Well, dear reader, I’m not going to sell them to you. I’m going to gift them to you. All five of them, yours free, and in your hands via e-mail within 48 hours!
How can I do that? These reports are very valuable. In the next few months alone, they can make or save you thousands of dollars, maybe even hundreds of thousands of dollars, depending on how big of an investor you are.
Fortunes will be made as the decline in the value of the U.S. dollar continues, as gold prices rise, as the euro collapses, as inflation sets in and as the stock market succumbs to the devastation of the economy. You need to position yourself to be among those precious few making fortunes from these five events.
Holding your hand all the way
More important than the five reports, I want to send you our new Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert. It’s the first new Lombardi newsletter in two years.
There is no doubt about it. I’m worried about our economic future and I know our readers are worried about our economic future. When I walk through our customer service department during the day; I hear our people on the phone with customers who are very worried about their investments.
That’s what Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert is all about—helping our customers make money as everything around us falls apart.
The greenback will continue to fall in value against other world currencies—we’ll make money from it.
The 10-year old gold bull market will continue—we’ll make money from it.
The Euro will evaporate—we’ll make money from it.
Inflation will become a real problem in America—we’ll make money from it.
The stock market will proceed to test its March 2009 lows—and we’ll make money from it.
With Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert, you’ll make money by buying ETFs and stocks that rise in value as gold prices and inflation rise and the American dollar, euro and stock market collapse. It’s not a short selling service. In fact, short selling is banned from the mandate of Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert.
I write Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert personally each month. It’s a simple eight-page newsletter where I comment on the economy and the stock market. In each issue, I review our positions outlined in our five special reports:
The ETF Set to Skyrocket in Price as the Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar Continues—yours free.
Single Best Leveraged Play for the Gold Bull Market—yours free.
Making Money from the Sovereign Debt Crisis: How to Achieve Massive Profit from the Collapse of the Euro—yours free.
Inflation Hedge: Serious Profits from the New Multi-Year Trend of Higher Interest Rates—yours free.
Lombardi’s Secret Stock That Goes up When the Stock Market Goes Down—yours free.
You get Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert two ways: We e-mail it to you; and you get a secret password for a web site you can visit to see the issues posted online. E-mail alerts, which are separate from the newsletter, are sent to you once each month, between the newsletters. Hence, I’m in contact with you at least twice a month: 24 times a year.
An unprecedented opportunity
For the financial advisories I personally write, I charge between $995 and $1,995 a year. The five special research reports we are sending you, we’ve priced them at $95 each: $475 total.
Since I believe we are headed for the most turbulent financial times America has seen since the Great Depression, I wanted to make Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert as affordable as possible.
Hence, I’ve slashed the regular subscription rate for one-year of Lombardi’s Crisis Alert: 12 monthly newsletters, 12 monthly e-alerts, to $295, and you get the five special, hot-off-the-press research reports I’ve mentioned free.
But your rate—the rate offered to the first 10,000 readers who sign up—is $100 less than that: just $195.
Be one of the fortunate ones! Protect yourself and set yourself up to profit from the financial Armageddon headed our way
Act now to secure your place, get your special research reports, and lock in a tremendous discount.
To recap, you’ll get:
  • 12 monthly issues of the Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert newsletter
  • 12 separate, monthly e-alerts from Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert
These five special research reports for FREE just for trying Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert:
  • The ETF Set to Skyrocket in Price as the Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar Continues
  • Single Best Leveraged Play for the Gold Bull Market
  • Making Money from the Sovereign Debt Crisis: How to Achieve Massive Profit from the Collapse of the Euro
  • Inflation Hedge: Serious Profits from the New Multi-Year Trend of Higher Interest Rates
  • Lombardi’s Secret Stock That Goes up When the Stock Market Goes Down
And, of course, everything comes with a money-back guarantee: If there is ever a time you are not happy with Lombardi’s Crisis Profit Alert, you can cancel for a refund of your undelivered issues. The five special research reports…they’re yours to keep no matter what.
I’ve told you about my five major predictions and how they’ve already come true.
I’ve given you critical warning number six.
And I’ve given you the answers on how to profit from the financial catastrophe headed our way.
The next step is up to you!
Yours truly,
Michael Lombardi
Michael Lombardi, MBA
Founder
Lombardi Publishing Corporation
Celebrating 25 years of service to investors