My new term: Great Economic Reset

The average private sector worker in America earns $61,000 annually in pay, pension benefits, and health care benefits.   

The average state and local government workers make $80,000.

  5 million state employees

14.1 million local employees

The average federal workers make $120,000 taxpayer dollars in pay, pension, and benefits.

2.2 million federal civilan workers

1.5 million military personnel (doesn't look like this will go down as we have many places to blow up.)

The Clinton administration found 850,000 federal jobs that could be done in the private sector. So, as an estimate, double that. The average savings to taxpayers when hiring a private worker instead of a government worker is 30%.

I imagine private military contractors are not included in these numbers. 

These numbers are meaningless without coloration. Recall government workers do not produce anything, rather they are a cost center, interfere with production, and mope around doing simple, albeit numbing, jobs.  Some people have interesting jobs: they blow things up and kill people and others track your email.  

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Today's observation: I needed to send out two pleadings yesterday (each was 70 pages). I was thinking of using priority mail which would mean driving to a large building with an empty parking lot to wait on line. Lines are usually 6 to 8 people long and there is usually one person actually working and another doing the post-office shuffle. There are usually one or two persons lurching about in the filthy back area.

I decided to walk to a nondescript store front a few blocks away, across from the boarded up, beautiful, depression design, former post office that was abandoned for no reason I can fathom, to see if they could help with printing.  I counted six people working at a feverish pace. The company did printing, private mail boxes ($4/mo), and takes mail and federal express.  UPS too, I think. 

One person, there being no assigned counter drone, immediately asked what I wanted, wasn't sure, grabbed my papers. A minute later she told me to come back in a half hour. I did and all four documents were done, two were sent priority post, and people were still scurrying around helping each other.  The printing was .10 per page and the priority post was the regular price. 

The Great Reset is economically inevitable regardless of union action and employee voting for friends. I am also thinnking this is the Great Counter Revolution, but most people don't realize they are in a fight with an enemy; they assume things are just normal, but out of control 

So, how high is the sea level, anyway?

My legend:  Blue is sea level which, I guess, is not really the sea level, but an extraction of trend data to show a correlation with red Pacific El Nino and Nina. Sounds open to hockey stick redesign. 


So, Greg, set us straight.

2011_rel2: GMSL and Multivariate ENSO Index

Edited: 2011-07-29

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Discussion

The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is the unrotated, first principal component of six observables measured over the tropical Pacific (see NOAA ESRL MEI, Wolter & Timlin,1993,1998).  To compare the global mean sea level to the MEI time series, we removed the mean, linear trend, and seasonal signals from the 60-day smoothed global mean sea level estimates and normalized each time series by its standard deviation. The normalized values plotted above show a strong correlation between the global mean sea level and the MEI, with the global mean sea level often lagging changes in the MEI. Since the MEI has recently sharply increased (coming out of a strong La Niña), we expect the global mean sea level estimates to also reverse their recent downward trend and begin to increase as the La Niña effects wane.

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The correlation is interesting; however, remember it is not showing causation.

Recent sea level readings showed a mean 5mm decrease in sea levels, which is well out of the trend since 1990, as defined by those who make money by claiming my car will flood NYC. 

Here is my question: Rising sea levels compared with what?  Land moves, too. The Adirondacks have been "rising" for twenty million years after the last glacier and for it to be where it is, now, it had to have risen an average of 1-3 mm/year. Islands in the Pacific sink each year. Then again, what are they rising and sinking against?

Sea level, as my model Homo Silvestris thinks (No, I will not explain it), is usually thought of as the standard; you know: 150 feet above sea level. So, now, it is not the standard. Our standard is relative! Then, what is the standard?  

In the past, I would accept that the big brains, who make a living creating reports, would begin with basic facts, assumptions. Since I have not really seen that in experience, it takes no courage to ask the basic questions. If the answer starts with five second of double talk, you have your answer. 

Query: What is the standard? 

Answer: There is no standard, there are computer models and equations. This is the work of my Homo Meteoris (OK, man with head in the clouds. Silvestris is forest)

So, we go to the University of Colorado, that land locked college, here: ...

 The term "sea level" has many meanings depending upon the context. In satellite altimetry, the measurements are made in a geocentric reference frame (relative to the center of the Earth). Tide gauges, on the other hand, measure sea level relative to the local land surface (see the tide gauge discussion and FAQ). ... [Painful deletion of descriptions of how premises are designed with many references.]

The term "global mean sea level" in the context of our research is defined as the area-weighted mean of all of the sea surface height anomalies measured by the altimeter in a single, 10-day satellite track repeat cycle.  It can also be thought of as the "eustatic sea level." [I am sorry, I don't get the multiple definitions used as the baseline of data.] 

The eustatic sea level is not a physical sea level (since the sea levels relative to local land surfaces vary depending on land motion and other factors), but it represents the level if all of the water in the oceans were contained in a single basin. Changes to this eustatic level are caused by changes in total ocean water mass (e.g., ice sheet runoff), changes in the size of the ocean basin (e.g., GIA), or density changes of the water (e.g., thermal expansion). The time series of the GMSL estimates over the TOPEX and Jason missions beginning in 1992 to the present indicates a mostly linear trend after correction for inter-mission biases between instruments. The GMSL rate corrected for GIA represents changes in water mass and density in the oceans. These changes are thought to be predominantly driven by thermal expansion of the oceans and land ice melt (Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and glaciers).  

There is no baseline. There are averages, means of anomalies by height (what height?), estimates, satellites, local surface comparisons, parts I could not follow, the eustatic sea level over time, and the corrections for density, and land ice melt. All of the definition flows from mathematical expressions, like the hockey stick. 


There is no water gage, nor any land gage. There is a relationship, our simple silvestrist minds understand, between the two as expressed in a time frame inconsequential to the earth, based upon very recent memory. If the it snowed more when I was twelve, as I perceived it, then everything is broken. This common sense, if you will, is used to announce as facts things designed in the clouds. 


It is like Wall Street guys explaining to an Iowa banker how it is smart to invest in default swaps.


The meteoric stuff is all good fun, I suppose, though I don't like having tax money pay for it, but no one should take any of it as truth, nor correlation as causation, nor a global trend measured in a lifetime.  We have learned not to nod when Goldman Sachs says, "You can trust us."


Take a tour of the University of Colorado's center by clicking a link above. While it is all very impressive, notice that the work of the center is to define information. 


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By following the global warming banner into battle, money and attention was secured; the government funded studies, as it always does, to promote what it wants - a world in need of a big brother. 


The banner is tattered and low. The army entourage is fading away. However, the damage is done and visible for all to see, though only recently. 


There is little abstract research in the mainstream labs and universities.


The intellectual exercises that developed the twentieth century are gone, at least in the US, in favor of government contracts to develop a part for a weapon designed for a previous war, solar power and ethanol projects that a high school student could research and find stupid, in stem cells chaos, in CCD cameras and computers to follow me around everyday.  


On the other hand, the government spends billions attempting to stop research into politically incorrect work, pipelines, unfavored ideas. Natural gas and small nuclear plants (safe) will provide the U.S. with all the energy we need, at a low price, both are blocked. We are told to buy electric cars which ravage the earth in their production and still require generators. We are told to use wind power, uneconomical without government grants, but not off the Kennedy compound. 


Every town, every college, even many companies hire experts in soliciting money from the government, which means finding out what it is it wants.  This is not even commercial science; it is political and, as such, will provide nothing useful to anyone other than the ruling class and oligarchs.


We are a fascist state, fronted by socialists, and the evidence is everywhere. Now, if only people would pay attention. We ar becoming England of 1950.

Romney: Il Duce

I know I said I am done blogging, but here is one I had to write. Here is another proof that the United States Constitution has become a stale talking point.


First, lets go back to George Romney, Mitt Romney's dad, who was born in Mexico and ran for the Republican nomination. See a pattern yet? Now, let us return to Mitt.


You need to keep track of the great leader's view on the Constitution, as they will not be written down and if you make a mistake, the army will come and arrest you and hold you in secret with no possibility of habeas corpus. You can watch a video at the Atlantic Monthly  but here is the key statement, weird syntax and all:

...I can assure you if I'm president, the Iranians will have no question but that I will be willing to take military action if necessary to prevent them from becoming a nuclear threat to the world. I don't believe at this stage, therefore, if I'm president that we need to have a war powers approval or special authorization for military force. The president has that capacity now....

  Note the word "now."  


Of course, the pretext for pounding the war drum is to prevent the only nation on earth that does not have a fiat currency from being a world threat.  It is, by not having a fiat currency. 


Sorry to be rambling from blog retirement, over my particular life experience I have come to realize that garbled syntax has meaning. I am not talking about using a poor word or making an error during construction. I am referring to precise, convoluted language, that which we merely ascribe to politicians as their avoidance of being pinned down, which is true, also. If you are old school, you know how to digram a sentence.  Try the quote above. In the end, there is a buzz finished with: I can blow up anyone for sixty days.


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As to the "now"


There is the "War Powers Act" that was passed during 1973, thanks to the Viet Nam era fear episode, passed ostensibly to "limit" the actions of the president. This is how things are sold in Fantasyland. We were sold the Federal Reserve, the Seventeenth Amendment, various "police actions," the NDAA, etc., etc. All you need it s false crisis.  Now, as in Libya, you don't need any crisis. You just need to be mad.


President Nixon VETOED, the War Powers Act as being unconstitutional, but our Congress overrode the veto. Congress undercut its own enumerated power. No president has affirmed it is Constitutional, but they use it, they are not limited by it. There is no question it is unconstitutional, there is no question Rubio, Jindal, McCain, George Romney, and Obama are not eligible to be president. Then again, there is no question that the Constitution is not relevant. 


This is another example how we lost our nation.  


There are timing provisions in the Act that required the President to request approval of an executive act placing troops in combat. If there is no approval of Congress (a resolution - ???) the troops must be withdrawn. Obama no longer cares about getting approval, if you have noticed.  New York Times editorial on Obama in Libya, even they get the usurpation. Leftists and Statists can work together, but at some point the Leftist realizes what they are doing:

EDITORIAL

Libya and the War Powers Act

Published: June 16, 2011

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It would be hugely costly — for this country’s credibility, for the future of NATO and for the people of Libya — if Congress were to force President Obama to abandon military operations over Libya. However, Mr. Obama cannot evade his responsibility, under the War Powers Act, to seek Congressional approval to continue the operation.

Related in News

• White House Defends Continuing U.S. Role in Libya Operation (June 16, 2011)

• Times Topic: War Powers Act of 1973

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The White House’s argument for not doing so borders on sophistry — that “U.S. operations do not involve sustained fighting or active exchanges of fire with hostile forces, nor do they involve the presence of U.S. ground troops,” and thus are not the sort of “hostilities” covered by the act...

We are deeply skeptical of the motivations of at least some of the politicians suddenly championing the War Powers Act, beginning with House Speaker John Boehner....

Also, note the act requires that the location the troops be one where "imminent" hostilities are likely. That is anywhere we send out troops. 




Here is the New York Times on the subject:

HOW WAR POWERS ACT WORKS

Published: March 29, 1984

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WASHINGTON, March 28— The War Powers Act of 1973, passed in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, puts limits on the ability of the President to send American troops into combat areas without Congressional approval.

Under the act, the President can only send combat troops into battle or into areas where ''imminent'' hostilities are likely, for 60 days without either a declaration of war by Congress or a specific Congressional mandate.

The President can extend the time the troops are in the combat area for 30 extra days, without Congressional approval, for a total of 90 days.

The act, however, does not specify what Congress can do if the President refuses to comply with the act. Congress could presumably suspend all funds for such troops and override a Presidential veto.

Need more of a reason to go away?

Google release its latest report concerning governments request for information on people and for removal of information.

...The U.S. government filed 6,321 requests with Google for user data during the final six months of the year. That was far more than any other country, according to Google, and a 6 percent increase from the previous six months. Google complied with 93 percent of the U.S. requests for user data, encompassing more than 12,200 accounts.....



NOTICE:  93 percent. The requests by the way did not indicate who asked for the information and was not generally related to a crime.

Use "Ix" as search engine.





Read more on Newsmax.com: Google: Obama Administration Increases Requests for Content Removal
Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now!

Felix Zulauf of Barrons: Sky is Falling

I know I quit. Just a rerun.  It is meant to keep up the vigilance.

G

“We are witnessing the biggest market manipulation of all time.”

• Joshua M Brown
 
• June 9th, 2012

Felix Zulauf, living legend and veteran member of the Barron's Roundtable, lays out his still-bearish thesis in the magazine's mid-year update this weekend...

So what will happen next?

The euro is not the real problem but a trigger and compounder of the structural problems. It could only work if the euro zone entered a fiscal and political union, which won't happen, as Europeans aren't prepared to give up national sovereignty. Politicians therefore will go from one compromise and quick fix to the next, with the crisis deepening until some nations at the periphery won't be able to stand the economic pain anymore. They will want their old national currency back, and devalue to adjust the external accounts.

China won't be able to save us, as it did in 2009. The Chinese will lower interest rates but their actions will be reactive and lag. If my thesis is right, we must assume things will go awfully wrong in the next 12 months and the system will be at risk of collapsing. Most U.S.-focused investors might not understand it as they see corporations doing well.

How bad will things get?

The potential exists for a broad-based nationalization of the credit system, capital controls and dramatic restrictions on financial markets. Some might even be closed for some time.

Good heavens!

We are witnessing the biggest financial-market manipulation of all time. The authorities have intervened more and more, and thereby created this monster. They might change the rules when the game goes against their own interests.

We are in a severe credit crunch. It starts when the weakest links in the system can't finance their activities. Then you have a flight to safety into Treasuries and German bunds, compounded by a quasi-shortage of good collateral. That's why bond yields have fallen so low. This isn't an inflationary environment but a deflationary one.

Why you cannot rely on the bank

I am winding down this blog, but I can still drop in mini-facts worth considering. For example, a foreshadowing:

Italy has authorized a large Italian bank (BNI) to freeze transactions. Customers are not able to pay bills, write checks or use ATM/debit or credit cards.

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NEWS

Al-Shabab rebels offer 10 camels for Obama’s whereabouts in mockery of $33-million U.S. bounty

Agence France-Presse  Jun 11, 2012 – 11:21 AM ET | Last Updated: Jun 11, 2012 12:13 PM ET

REUTERS // REUTERS/Larry Downing

Somalia’s al-Qaeda-allied Shabab rebels Saturday mocked a U.S. offer of up to $33-million for tip-offs enabling the arrest of its top leaders, saying they would give 10 camels to anyone who helped locate Barack Obama.

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MOGADISHU — Somalia’s al-Qaeda-allied Shabab rebels Saturday mocked a U.S. offer of up to $33-million for tip-offs enabling the arrest of its top leaders, saying they would give 10 camels to anyone who helped locate Barack Obama.

The highest price put up by the US State Department on Thursday was for Shabab chief Ahmed Abdi aw-Mohamed — more commonly known as Godane or Abu Zubayr — with a $7-million bounty for information on where he is hiding.