True Belief in Global Warming: Errors in Prediction are not Model Errors (?)

I was checking on the current snow storm in the N.E., tonight, and came across a fine exemplar of how true believers avoid logic.

First paragraph:  OK current events show "significantly slower" global warming than predicted in ALL 114 IPCC models.  Yes, everyone UN committee has failed to reflect reality.  But wait, there is more! The reality, further, is there has been NO slowing of global warming, there exist global cooling. True believers see a cooling trend as a slowing of a warming trend. The need to justify a religious belief has given us:  because temperatures are falling, the warming trend is slowing.   (I am not making this up.)

Why:  because the truth exists and stray data must be explained.

Please examine the graph below. There is a colorful splattering that represents every one of the 114 models from our genius academics. Notice the circle?

Yes, the one on the bottom of the colorful patch.  Every model shows real temperature ABOVE reality. Not one model made a  politically incorrect error and demonstrated temperatures below reality. By itself, this condemns all the models to more than being ill conceived - they are written to demonstrate a warmth that does not exist.

Indeed, every model since 1989 places temperature above the real temperature.

The headline, in true believer form, announces the models are not erroneous, they are just all wrong.

At the end, tow scientists are quotes as saying IPCC models do not over estimate the warming my Nissan causes. That mean, of course, they are merely defective.

Climate Model Error Not the Reason for Recent Differences between Forecast and Actual

February 4, 2015; 7:37 PM ET

The rate of global warming since the start of the millennium has indeed been significantly slower than all of the 114 relevant IPCC climate model predictions. However, the gap (error) between what was predicted by the models and what was actually measured was not due to systematic errors of the models as some AGW sceptics have argued.

Global land/ocean surface combined temperature trend since 2000. Image courtesy of NASA GISS.

Not surprisingly, the gap is due to the fact that there are always random fluctuations in the Earth's climate, according to Jochem Marotzke, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, and Piers M. Forster, a professor at the University of Leeds in the UK.

The two researchers reached their conclusion through a comprehensive statistical analysis, according to the EurekAlert report.

The team also found that climate models do not generally over-estimate man-made climate change and do not react too sensitively to increasing atmospheric CO2 (greenhouse gas).

Image courtesy Nature 2015/MPI for Meteorology.

Insanity Replaces Junk Science

The National Post, a real newspaper out of Toronto, has a column called "Junk Science" that would make one chuckle if the junkies were not in power. For example, the statistics show mass vaccination for measles does not really work, even if you vaccinated everyone. A vaccine works as advertised for less than 25% of the people and that wanes over time. 

On the other hand, before government geniuses, 100% of children got measles, a relatively harmless childhood disease, so every adult had a life-long immunity. No problems existed for pregnant women. I suppose the illogic could be amusing, if not expensive and harmful. As well, it is more of the sprawl of government control.

Intrigued by recent junk science, I asked Mr. Google what the sea level was at Manhattan, N.Y.

There were endless pages of projections and illustration of Manhattan under water by 2100. Look it up, it is amazing how PR can skew reality.  No facts, only projections based upon projections. This is what happens when normal people do not hit true believers in the nose with a rolled magazine. 

The National Post gave NOW Magazine of Toronto the Rubber Duck award for publishing that by 2100 most of the CN Tower would be under water. This would be more than 1,500 plus feet of ocean rise. I am not exactly sure as Canadians use grams or liters or something like that. This projection is not silly, it is insane. Still, dopes will read it and vote for a politician who wants to tax them to build a 1,000 tall dike.  Recently, Gov. Moonbeam of California announced by 2100 LAX would be underwater; the next day he retracted the stupid comment, but, per normal, the drones watched the TV news and are in a panic over rising tides. BTW, LAX is at 100 feet above sea level. 

This took me to:  http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/45202.html

The scope of our government's stupid positions is out weigh by the arrogance. 

Sea Level Rise

Projections and Impacts for New York

Rising seas and increased storm surges will
put New York's coastlines at risk.

By 2100 scientists project that sea levels along New York's coastlines and estuaries will likely be 18 to 50 inches higher, though they could be as much as 75 inches higher.

In New York's coastal marine counties, home to more than half of the state's citizens, higher sea levels already are intensifying storm surges and flood events. As the seas rise further, coastal communities face growing risks of damage or disruption.

Water expands as it warms, and global mean sea level has been rising since the end of the last ice age. Until the 20th Century the change was small, but then warming sped up as accumulating greenhouse gases trapped more heat in the atmosphere. The oceans grew warmer, making the seas rise faster.

Most of the sea-level rise observed to date has been due to the thermal expansion of warming waters. But today, added water from melting glaciers and land ice sheets is starting to contribute more to sea-level rise than heat-driven expansion of existing seawater. And the Arctic and Antarctic have abundant supplies of land ice yet to melt, all of which will add to sea levels.

Enough greenhouse gases already have accumulated in the atmosphere to lock in sea-level rise for centuries, or even millennia. The longer we continue to emit large amounts of greenhouse gases, the more rapidly the seas will rise...

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This official, expensive web site information is, of course, 100% propaganda, which is not necessary considering our public schools do a fine job of canceling out reality.  There is no cause or effect provable regarding CO2 and warming. What is demonstrated is that AFTER warming, CO2 rises. 

The entire 20th Century did not see global warming, but wait, I am confused, are we not in climate change, as the world is cooling.  So, apparently the non global warming is causing the ocean to heat up, which is not true in any event. 

The lack of solar activity is leading us into a very cold next few decades, but that is probably CO2 somehow as well.  

Anyway, our government says melting ice causes the sea level to rise. Greg mentioned the other day a good example: put ice in a glass of water so the level is at the very top. As the ice melts, the water level decreases. 

From:  http://www.skepticalscience.com/Past-150000-Years-of-Sea-Level-History-Suggests-High-Rates-of-Future-Sea-Level-Rise.html

Figure 3a - Correlation of Soreq Cave (red line) and eastern Mediterranean (black line) oxygen-18 isotope signals. 3b - Eastern Mediterranean Sea oxygen-18 isotope record from another foram species (green line) and the highest probability sea level curve (blue line). The coloured dots and grey-shaded columns denote other paleodata used to validate and synchronize the reconstructions. From Grant (2012).  

Don't get excited, just look for the blue line for the discovered sea level. The Red Sea is at an historical low. What this means is obvious to any but the True Believer. 

Why We Have Climate Change

As you know we are in the eigth with year of global cooling.  I mentioned years ago this was to be the case because sun spot activity is abnormally low. Hence, I ridiculed the "narrative" of global warming and spat into the wind, afterward.

I did mention that Europeans had already caught on that "warming" was nonsense and were using "climate change." The true believers in America were not so sharp, but they caught on.

So, if it is cold, it is climate change; if it is warm, it is climate change; those huge destructive hurricanes that the government has predicted for ten years are not climate change because they never happened. Melting of sea ice in the arctic was climate change, but not the rapid increase of ice in the antarctic. The lack of CO2 in former warming periods were removed from discussions, so never mind. All very convenient.

Below is what NOAA tells me about global warming, today, in the Glens Falls, NY area. It was -8 this morning at Burger King.

Of course, when it is colder for a week, we have climate change. The definition of climate is irrelevant to the analysis of any given week's frigid or hot air. For those concerned about the climate, perhaps one could buy a goat and sacrifice it to the gods.

Anyway, the sun spots remain at a minimum, so watch out for solar change.

This Afternoon Snow Hi 8 °F Tonight Chance Snow Lo -10 °F Tuesday Mostly Sunny Hi 15 °F Tuesday Night Slight Chc Snow Lo 6 °F Wednesday Snow Likely Hi 27 °F Wednesday Night Chance Snow Lo 8 °F Thursday Chance Snow Hi 19 °F Thursday Night Chance Snow Lo -7 °F Friday Mostly Sunny Hi 15 °F