Our economy, without the panic spin

My major resource, Irene Wolfson, sent me a link from Toronto's Globe And Mail web site. The G&M is an earth is dying/Bush is dumb/Bush is diabolically clever/Americans suck paper with really bad film reviews by nasty, self-important snipers, so the following is intriguing.

Only two comments from me: I told you a lower dollar was good, now we have to stop the fall. Hopefully, you won't start a sentence with "Thankfully." (Or, "Hopefully" lest you missed the sarcasm.)

The coming rust-belt recovery Manufacturing will play a surprise lead role in the turnaround of the resilient U.S. economy

BARRIE MCKENNA, January 26, 2008 at 12:03 AM EST

WASHINGTON — The natural state of an economy is to grow. We work more, we earn more, we spend more and we produce more.

Occasionally, however, economies stall and go into recession. And, for a stretch, perhaps a few months, everything goes into retreat.

Wages, spending and output shrink.

That's what appears to be happening to the mighty U.S. economy.

Thankfully, recessions are a rare and brief event in this country.

Since the Second World War, the United States has experienced just 10 recessions, lasting an average of 10 months each.

Amid the financial gyrations of the past few weeks, it's comforting to know that the foundation of the next growth phase is already being laid. And it could come from the most unlikely of places: the dirty business of manufacturing, and trade.

You can thank the remarkable resilience of the American economy, the largest, most diverse and open economy on the planet.

It isn't easy to keep the United States down for long. The same, often reckless, dynamism that causes this country to repetitively binge — on real estate, technology stocks or some other bauble du jour — is precisely what will pull the economy out the other side.

It's far too early to write an obituary for the U.S. economy.

Just remember: This isn't Japan, which suffered three recessions during its "lost decade" of the 1990s.

Japan's economy was red-hot. And no one thought the boom would ever end. The price of everything from stocks and real estate to a cup of coffee was badly out of whack. So much so, that by 1990 the Imperial Palace in central Tokyo was estimated to be worth more than the entire continental U.S.

When the bubble inevitably burst, Japanese banks and policy-makers were ploddingly slow to acknowledge they even had a problem

And so, during the decade that it took all the bad debts to work their way through Japan's hide-bound corporate structure, worthy borrowers couldn't get loans and the economy stagnated.

Americans are far too impatient to ever let that happen.

They got into their current mess by letting the housing industry run amok. Too much money was pumped into one sector with predictable consequences: overbuilding, loans to people who couldn't afford them and grossly inflated prices.

Brutal and wrenching as it is, the unwinding process is already well under way. Homeowners can't pay their mortgages, so banks foreclose and homes are auctioned off at fire-sale prices. Falling prices make loans turn bad, which causes losses for lenders and their shareholders.

In just a few months, American banks have written off tens of billions' worth of investments. They have also sought out big Asian and Middle Eastern investors to repair their tattered balance sheets.

The light at the end of the tunnel is the U.S. dollar. A steady five-year decline in its value against most other currencies, including the Canadian dollar, is rapidly restoring the United States' competitive place in the world. It has made American products look cheap again, along with American workers.

The United States already has what is arguably the most efficient service economy in the world, an impressive transportation infrastructure and sophisticated financial markets.

Now, the country is poised to reassert itself as a manufacturing powerhouse.

EXPORTING TO CHINA

Consider Richards Industries of Cincinnati, Ohio. It makes valves — pressure valves, control valves, temperature valves. These little machine-tooled devices are what keep modern factories humming and in perfect balance.

The company's business has never been in better shape, thanks to a thriving export business, insists Bruce Broxterman, president and part owner. When he joined the company in 1980, exports accounted for about 2 per cent of sales. Now, with thriving sales to China and other Asian countries, exports make up nearly 40 per cent of its $30-million (U.S.) a year business. And the cheaper U.S. dollar is enabling the company to make big inroads in Europe, too.

"We're doing all the right things operationally," Mr. Broxterman says. "I'm pretty optimistic."

Within five years, more than half its sales will be outside the United States. The company has been aggressively hiring salespeople in key overseas markets to tap the growth.

And even more remarkably, with roughly the same number of employees (125) it had a decade ago, Richards Industries is cranking out more valves than ever.

The company isn't alone. The Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg recently predicted a revival of the U.S. rust belt as part of a "renaissance" in U.S. manufacturing. "Dollar depreciation is already redistributing growth back to the United States," he said.

Many experts had given up on manufacturing in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. In a world of cheap labour, there was very little that you could produce competitively there any more, skeptics argued.

LEARNING TO BE NIMBLE

Well, something remarkable has happened. Overvalued for so long, the U.S. dollar has forced companies to become a lot more productive to survive in the global economy. Manufacturers such as Richards Industries learned to become nimble and agile, rather than just big.

Now, with the lower dollar, they are poised to reap rich rewards.

Suddenly, foreign companies want to put their factories here, not the other way around. The European aircraft-maker Airbus, Craftsman Tools of Britain, the German chainsaw maker Stihl AG & Co. and the German tire-maker Continental AG have all announced U.S. plant expansions in recent months.

In the home market, too, American manufacturers are discovering that they can compete again. A 30 per cent drop in the dollar in the past five years is huge. A European buyer looking at buying a U.S. product priced at $100 needs to come up with just 67 euros, compared to nearly 100 euros before.

Surprisingly to some, the United States makes more manufactured goods today than at any time in its history — three times more than it did in the mid-1950s boom. And since 1980, the value of U.S. manufacturing has tripled to roughly $5-trillion.

Here's a newsflash: The entire manufacturing sector has not up and moved to China or Mexico. With less than 5 per cent of the world's population, the United States accounts for nearly 25 per cent of all manufacturing — No. 1 in the world. Japan, No. 2, has lost ground and is fading. Fast-growing China still accounts for less than 10 per cent.

The catch is that American companies have learned to produce more with fewer, better-skilled workers. The country's factory work force peaked at about 19 million before the 1980-81 recession. It has since shrunk to about 14 million.

And yet the overall unemployment rate, now at 5 per cent, has fallen as factories have shed jobs. This suggests that surplus workers are being absorbed into the rest of the economy.

And manufacturers are successfully selling to the rest of the world.

American exports grew in double digits in 2005 and 2006, and are on track to grow by 13 per cent in 2007. Manufactured exports are at a record high.

Even the embattled U.S. auto industry is showing signs of turning the corner. The Detroit Three auto makers have shown impressive productivity gains. Over the past five years, General Motors has reduced the hours needed to build a car by 15 per cent. Ditto for Ford and Chrysler.

The United States is quietly becoming an attractive place to build cars again — significantly cheaper than in Ontario, it turns out. With the Canadian and U.S. dollars near parity, Canada has become the high-priced location to assemble cars. Experts predict Ontario could lose 600,000 cars of production by 2012, as U.S. production is ramped up.

It's the same for a lot of the other products that the U.S. makes in abundance, including aircraft, steel, power equipment, machinery, food products and pharmaceuticals. Production is rising; exports are up.

Even in Ohio — the centre of the rust belt — there's a bit of a manufacturing revival under way. Since 2000, more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs have disappeared in the state. And yet it's the only state that has increased exports in each of the past eight years.

"The lower dollar has really changed the game, particularly in Europe," agrees Bruce Broxterman of Richards Industries. "I strongly believe in U.S. manufacturing."

Just like the company's valves, other sectors of the economy are now poised to pick up the slack and return the U.S. to its natural growth equilibrium.

There are a lot of people in this country who would not have thought this renaissance possible. All three leading Democratic presidential candidates — Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards — have spoken skeptically about the benefits of trade, while lamenting the "decline" of manufacturing.

And yet to choke off trade, by moving the United States down a more protectionist path, would snuff out one of the key strengths of the economy, based on a badly flawed premise.

Recommend this article? 162 votes

Piro to report on Iraq's WMD

Coming soon to a boob tube near you, the some of the truth about Iraq and weapons of mass destruction. It seems Bush didn't lie, Saddam Hussein did, as FBI guy George Prio tells 60 Minutes on Jan. 27th. 

I used to argue, for some stupid reason Hussein was playing with the inspectors and intelligence community to give the impression that he had WMD. Hence, once a target for the inspection was determined by Iraq, the order went out to clear the building out just before the inspectors arrived. 

I figured he just didn't understand the U.S. (and he didn't as he never thought we would actually invade, just drop a bomb or two for a few days - the legacy of the Clinton years.) but it seems he was playing the shell game in order to convince Iran that he had the weapons. He was more afraid of an Iranian invasion, then one from the west. 

Piro spent seven months with Hussein after he was arrested; he speaks Arabic and was charged with debriefing the Stalin wannabe. Hussein had several things he wanted to show, one being how smart he was at tricking the U.S. This is just before he was hanged. 

To the end, Hussein needed to be the macho figure, so once it was clear President Bush was going to invade, he still did not say anything. He instructed his army to stall the invasion for two weeks so he could put the "secret war" or the insurgency into effect. I read elsewhere, he got that idea from watching Blackhawk Down and how the gangs in Somalia operated, thinking the US and the UN were somehow analogous. Of course, the UN fucks up and  runs away, that is their job.  Just ask people being shot at and starved all over the world today. 

Another item of interest is that Hussein had the people and equipment lined up for the time that he would, indeed, give the order to make the weapons. 

So, catch the show.  I know the Bush haters will figure a way to not actually understand the implications of the information, but normal people will now have a handle on what in the hell the Saddam was thinking.

Bush didn't lie

InDUHviduals cry

The Tit-Willow under attack

If you think cries of Big Brother at the hands of the creeping, new world order of fascists are unjustified, an article sent over by Rod is presented:

Panto pirates told to report their plastic swords to the police

Last updated at 20:30pm on 17th January 2008 (Daily Mirror)

Comments (8)

Health and safety risk: Drama group member John Barker with one of the prop swords that had to be reported to the police

If you're in the Cornish village of Carnon Downs and encounter a blood-thristy band of sword-wielding pirates, don't worry. The police know all about them.

For while the pirates are only amateur actors from the local panto, they have been ordered to alert the police that they are using weapons - even though the swords are made of nothing more deadly than plastic.

Not only that, but because of health and safety regulations they have had to promise to keep the pretend cutlasses under lock and key when they are not being used.

Carnon Downs Drama Group has also had to promise that it has made adequate safety arrangements for the toy swords and that the person named to the police as being responsible for the 'weapons' accompanies them whenever they are moved.

The swords must be kept in a secure case and stored in a locked room with restricted access.

Elaine Gummow, co-director of the group's annual pantomime, said yesterday that the situation was absurd.

"Our production this year is Robinson Crusoe, or Cornwall's answer To Pirates Of The Caribbean," she said.

"It would be impossible not to stage it without the use of a few swords and cutlasses, as well as the traditional pop-gun which emits nothing more than a flag which says bang.

"It all seems a bit absurd but it is perhaps a sign of the times that health and safety is everywhere.

"All of us see there's a serious side to this, but I really don't think we pose a threat!"

She said the group first realised it must register the props after being alerted to new legislation on the use of weapons or their replicas in productions by the National Operatic and Dramatic Association.

"There was an article in a recent magazine about the use of weapons in productions," she said.

Scroll down for more...

Avast!: A scene from the performance of Robinson Crusoe, complete with plastic swords

"It told members that they had to carry out a full risk assessment and follow new health and safety guidelines if any weapons, including replica weapons, are used on stage."

The group told the police that it had no malicious intent and planned to use the weapons in its production - but was then told by police that it must also inform the fire brigade.

Neighbourhood beat officer PC Nigel Hyde said: "I gather we've made a note and it seems a bit unusual.

"But other forms of replica weapons have been used to carry out crimes and the consequences have been serious."

The new regulations cover films and television productions, as well as stage productions

A visit to the Congo

While we worry about Hillary's dress or Huckabee's base, the world goes on. The world is not as good theater, but we should pay attention every so often. The Congo "civil war," a tribal slaughter that spilled over from the Rwanda mass execution in 1994, continues. This is another example of the gross incompetence of the UN, though I can't blame the UN for the Rwanda genocide, that credit goes to Bill Clinton who vetoed UN action in a Security Council vote. It was OK, though, as he recently apologized. First came the corpses of the men and elder boys, killed trying to defend their sisters and mothers. Then came the women and girls, flushed out from their hiding places and slaughter ed. Last came the babies" (Frontline Fellowship 1994). Read the following and don't forget that the UN is a waste of oxygen and our leaders probably cannot find the Congo on a map. One feels impotent and sad because nothing will change unless a TV network decides to air scenes of death. As the article says, most of the people are dying from disease and malnutrition. More than half children. All it would take is for a government or foundation to write a check for medicine and nutrition supplements. The demented Ford Foundation wouldn't do that as it is focused on funding Marxist Mexican groups who want to create turmoil in the US. In the old days, it was concerned with helping people, not a political agenda. Our governments? Not even worth a lament. ======= Congolese Strife Continues to Kill Thousands

By Tendai Maphosa London 23 January 2008

Maphosa report - Download (MP3)
Maphosa report - Listen (MP3)

A new survey reports that an estimated 5.4 million people have died in the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo since 1998. Another 45,000 are dying every month. From London, Tendai Maphosa has more in this report for VOA.

A displaced mother and child stand near a mud hut in Minova, Democratic Republic of Congo, 18 Dec. 2007

A study led by the International Rescue Committee (IRC), a humanitarian organization found five years after the catastrophic war in Congo officially ended, the rate at which people are dying in the country remains virtually unchanged.

This is despite efforts of the world's largest peacekeeping force, billions of dollars in international aid and a historic election that revived democracy after decades of violence and despotism.

IRC president George Rupp says the conflict and its aftermath, in terms of fatalities, are the worst since World War II. According to Rupp, Congo's loss is equivalent to the entire population of Denmark or the U.S. state of Colorado perishing within a decade.

IRC UK director Sarah Hughes tells VOA that a tiny percentage of the deaths were caused by violence, illustrating how the aftermath of war can be more deadly than combat itself.

"By far the overwhelming proportion of people dying is through preventable disease such as malaria or pneumonia," she said. "Disease which can be prevented when there is security, when the population has access to health services, in other words they can reach a clinic, the clinic does have the drugs they need, they can give birth in safe surroundings etc."

Young children, who are especially susceptible to diseases like malaria, measles, dysentery and typhoid, have been particularly hard hit because medicines have not been available.

Hughes says although children are only 19 percent of the DRC's population, they make up half of the non-combat related deaths. According to the United Nations children's fund, UNICEF, the DRC is one of 11 countries where 20 percent of children die before the age of five.

Hughes says the purpose of the survey is to bring attention to Congo's crisis.

"The thing about the crisis in the Congo is that its very long drawn out, and that's why we want to bring the world's attention more to the plight of the Congolese and the need for very sustained international efforts in terms of resources and other forms of assistance to really help the government of the Congo and the people of the Congo to pull them out of the aftermath of conflict," she added.

The IRC expressed hope that reconciliation and recovery efforts will follow this week's peace agreement between militia leaders and Congo's government.

The survey was based on a sample of 14,000 households surveyed in 700 villages and towns across Congo from January 2006 to April 2007.

The DRC has experienced two foreign invasions that involved neighboring countries since 1994. Even after the departure of foreign forces, violence has erupted in such regions of the country as North Kivu.

Snow in Baghdad

Global cooling in the hot zone

Reuters A resident walks along a street during snowfall in Baghdad on Friday.

Snow falls on Baghdad for first time Agencies Published: January 11, 2008, 10:47 Baghdad: Snow fell on Baghdad on Friday for the first time in memory, and delighted residents declared it an omen of peace. On Friday morning, as muezzins were calling the faithful to prayer, the people here awoke to something certifiably new. For the first time in memory, snow fell on Baghdad. Although the white flakes quickly dissolved into gray puddles, they brought an emotion rarely expressed in this desert capital snarled by army checkpoints, divided by concrete walls and ravaged by sectarian killings - delight. "For the first time in my life I saw a snow-rain like this falling in Baghdad," said Mohammad Abdul Hussain, a 63-year-old retiree from the New Baghdad area.

Oceans, glaciers, and a new ice age

I visited Robert Felix' web site recently after hearing him on radio again. He is the author of Not by fire but by ice a warning that we have it all wrong, we are entering an ice age, not dangerous warming. Below is a small sample of items from his site. He is sort of a Drudge Report of climate.

Felix mentioned in passing in this interview that NOAH now estimates there are 3,000,000 underwater volcanoes; he feels they are are key to ocean warming, which he accepts, in addition to solar activity.

The change in the ocean leads to a change in wind patterns that could create the ice age. He also mentioned Mt. Ranier's glacier is increasing 18 feet per year. Shasta's are growing rapidly. Mont Blanc has doubled in four years and New Zealand's glaciers are all growing. Franz Joseph by 3 feet per DAY. Below is a link to a confusing Alaskan glaciers growth.

For anyone interested in hearing "the rest of the story" his site is a good resource. He mentioned that five states just had all-time low temperatures and the TV news had a meteorologist saying it was no big deal, there is no trend here. Felix chuckled and said we should imagine what the media would report if five states reported all-time high temperatures.

At some point, our mental filters start to steer us off a cliff as we look up to avoid bird poop.

A sampling:

1. This year will probably set all time records for snow fall and record low temperatures: Here
2. The Ice Age is Coming! So says Zbigniew Jaworowski, world-renowned atmospheric scientist and mountaineer, who has excavated ice out of 17 glaciers on six continents in his 50-year career. The shift from warm to cool climate might have already started, says Jaworowski.
See the Winter 2003-2004 issue of 21^st Century Science and Technology, p. 52-65. HERE

3. Kyoto is pointless, say 60 leading scientists 4 Apr 2006 - More than 60 leading international climate-change experts ask Canada's prime minister to review Canada's global warming policies. See Kyoto Pointless

4. 19,000 American scientists have signed the following:

We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind.

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.

To see who these folks are: Here

5. Sea level is not rising: Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner was interviewed by Gregory Murphy on June 6 for EIR. Dr. Mörner is the head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University in Sweden. He is past president of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, and leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project. Dr. Mörner has been studying the sea level and its effects on coastal areas for some 35 years.

EIR: What is the real state of the sea-level rising?

Mörner: You have to look at that in a lot of different ways. ... we can see that the sea level was indeed rising, from, let us say, 1850 to 1930-40. And that rise had a rate in the order of 1 millimeter per year. Not more. 1.1 is the exact figure.

That ended in 1940, and there had been no rise until 1970 ... There's no trend, absolutely no trend.... and then we go to satellite altimetry, and I will return to that.

Another way of looking at what is going on is the tide gauge. Tide gauging is very complicated, because it gives different answers for wherever you are in the world. But we have to rely on geology when we interpret it. So, for example, those people in the IPCC choose Hong Kong, which has six tide gauges, and they choose the record of one, which gives 2.3 mm per year rise of sea level. Every geologist knows that that is a subsiding area. It's the compaction of sediment; it is the only record which you shouldn't use.

... Not even ignorance could be responsible for a thing like that. ...So tide gauges, you have to treat very, very carefully. Now, back to satellite altimetry. From 1992 to 2002, [the graph of the sea level] was a straight line, variability along a straight line, but absolutely no trend whatsoever. We could see those spikes: a very rapid rise, but then in half a year, they fall back again. But absolutely no trend, and to have a sea-level rise, you need a trend....

Interview: Here

6. Alaskan glaciers advance one-third mile in less than a year
17 Jul 07 - "At least three glaciers in the same bay have advanced in one year," says scientist at the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks
See Alaskan Glaciers Advance One-Third Mile

7.

Antarctic Ice Sheet Growing

Sea Levels Falling

8 Nov 06 –– Research scientists D.J. Wingham et al. analyzed satellite
altimeter echoes to determine changes in volume of the Antarctic ice
sheet from 1992 to 2003. This survey, in their words, "covers 85% of
the East Antarctic ice sheet and 51% of the West Antarctic ice sheet,"
which together comprise "72% of the grounded ice sheet."

They found that the ice sheet is growing at 5 ± 1 mm year^-." Not only
is the ice sheet growing thicker, its volume is increasing. The researchers
estimate that "72% of the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining 27 ± 29 Gt year,
sufficient to "lower [my' italics] global sea levels by 0.08 mm year."

This net extraction of water from the global ocean, according to Wingham
et al., occurs because "mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on
the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic
mass loss from West Antarctica."

Contrary to all the horror stories one hears about rising sea levels that
gobble up coastal lowlands worldwide, the real-world data suggests just
the opposite effect.

Reference
Wingham, D.J., Shepherd, A., Muir, A. and Marshall, G.J. 2006.
"Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet. Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society A, 364: 1627-1635. See CO2 Science site HERE

8. Dutch team uses hi tech to determine Arctic Sea Levels are falling 2mm/yr. They say they have a high degree of confidence and it is up to geophysicists to explain it. HERE

----

Of course, all these people are probably on the payroll of sourthern real estate brokers.

The road map playing out?

I mentioned recently that Iran's leaders were motivated by the possibility of the Spetsnaz visiting to kill them, and if the past is prologue, their families, into rejoining the civilized world.

Reports claim that a road map exists to create the new relationship, one were Russia sells uranium to Iran without much protest from Mr. Bush. This road map would provide face-saving.

That said, consider current events as part of an elaborate game of chess and ignore the confusion of the major media which can't seem to figure out what is going on, other than trying to spin events as failures by President Bush, though they don't seem to be coherent in that knee-jerk reaction.

From the BBC:
====================

Iran 'could restore ties with US'

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has said relations with the US could be restored in the future. In a speech to students, he said the time was not right to restore ties, but if it were ever in Iran's interests he would endorse such a move. The US and Iran cut their diplomatic ties after the 1979 Islamic revolution and the subsequent takeover of the US embassy by militants in Tehran. Relations have been further strained by the row over Iran's nuclear programme. "We have never said these relations should be suspended indefinitely," said Ayatollah Khamenei. But he said now was not the right time because it would be harmful to Iran. Restored diplomatic ties would provide "an opportunity for US infiltration, traffic of their intelligence agents and espionage of Iran". Final word Last month, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Washington was open to better relations with Tehran if it stopped enriching uranium. Ayatollah Khamenei maintained his country's uncompromising line on the nuclear programme, saying his country would not halt enriching uranium. Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful electricity generation only, but the US and several European allies fear Tehran is trying to build nuclear weapons. The Ayatollah's words are unlikely to appear conciliatory in Washington and London says the BBC's Middle East analyst Roger Hardy. Rather, they were probably directed at a domestic audience ahead of parliamentary elections in March. The Ayatollah was also underlining the fact that he, and he alone, has the final word on foreign policy, says our analyst

Iran boats 'threatened US ships'

Five Iranian speedboats harassed three US navy ships at the weekend, approaching them and radioing a threat to blow them up, US officials say.

The incident happened in the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route. The US said their ships were about to open fire when the Iranian boats withdrew.

The White House warned Iran against "provocative actions that could lead to a dangerous incident in the future".

Iran played down the event, describing it as an "ordinary occurrence".

"This... happens for the two sides every once in a while and, after the identification of the two sides, the issue is resolved," foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said.

Official media also reported the US statement about Iran's allegedly threatening behaviour with scepticism, implying that Washington was exaggerating the incident.

'Serious provocation'

The speedboats, believed to belong to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, came within about 200m of the US vessels, Pentagon officials said.

"I am coming at you. You will explode in a couple of minutes," the Iranians said in a radio transmission, according to US officials.

The Iranian boats were operating at "distances and speeds that showed reckless, dangerous and potentially hostile intent," said Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman.

He said at least some of the boats were visibly armed.

US sailors assumed battle stations and the captain on one of the ships was about to order an attack when the Iranian boats turned away, dropping unidentified objects in the path of the vessel, US officials said....

============================

The boat guys of Iran are a bit independent of the the political leadership, so who knows what they had in mind. The thing to notice is how the incident is waived away by Iran. There was no claim of U.S. violation of sovereign waters, etc.

Of course, Iran has a long term view, something our party system and Hollywood mentality seems to make impossible, so if there is an accommodation, it could be done as a feint.

The problem for the gang leaders in Iran is that the people are now connected to the outside world more than ever and the introduction of the West, of Iraq's experience, will subvert the medieval foundations of fundamentalism. The young in the cities already know the West is not the Great Satan and, over time, if this feeling reaches the Iranian outback then the key support for the hard liners will wander away.

Warming Takes A Holiday

I listened to ABC news on the radio last night and heard that global warming has slowed, but last year was still one of the hottest years in history, whatever history is. The sound bite was from some English character, so it sounded important. How the comment qualified as world news is sadly understandable these days of editorializing 24/7.

So we have another "true believer" filter at work. Later, on the Art Bell wannabe all-night show, there was excitement that a new sun spot was found, which means to people who think they can predict the nature of the sun, new solar events were coming, which will raise the earth's temperature via the ocean.

Clearly, the two disembodied voices were happy about the prospect of heating of the ocean- odd no? They can yell, "I told you so!" as they run from the rising sea. For my part, I would be happy about increasing warmth as I can't afford to move south right now, but I can't say I know the mind of God, so I won't bet on the solar cycle changing rapidly to the positive slope.

I have not come across any warmers who previously mentioned the sun as being any, let alone the the main influence on earth's temperatures. We looked at the recent studies a few months back, if you recall, about the failure of warming models to include the sun. (Recall my witty remark about cow farts causing Mars to warm....no? No matter.)

There is no point beating this rug (I want to sound like Huckabee and Fred.) Just thought I would throw in a reality graph. If you are not in the know, the spelling "Algore" is a goof on Mr. Gore who seems to slur his names together. Funny what people focus on. Me, I marvel at his belly, as a way to deflect self awareness.

If the graph were a stock chart, I would predict an upward movement as a base is forming and the bottom of the down movements have a positive slope. That being my stock pick, bet on the opposite.

Below, an update on NYS degree days, which I can't define only to say degree days are a way to compare days, months, years.[Heating degree-days are the number of degrees that the daily average temperature falls below 65° F.]

You will see we are much cooler this year than last, but warmer than average since 1970. Already, January is cold, though as a write there is a respite. Unlike our radio experts, I am not going to hope for freezing weather to prove there is no warming. First, hope is irrelevant; second, I am not invested in a glacier religion; third, I am not crazy, probably.

What I found interesting was October 2006 was apparently really cold, relatively speaking. Don't recall that.

P.S.: I just read an scientific article (meaning boring and I could not follow much of it) that goes to the point that there is no such thing as a global average temperature. It is a mathematical non sequitur. But, lets not beat that rug, as we have no dog in the fight and a rising ocean lifts all boats.

Albany

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Period:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	2284	2098	2354

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	203	210	264
12/22	286	196	253
12/15	265	184	238
12/08	283	241	222
12/01	205	126	203
11/24	222	195	185
11/17	187	91	168
11/10	176	141	154
11/03	145	137	139
10/27	67	162	125
10/20	63	112	108
10/13	55	96	91
10/06	18	77	70

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Month:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	271	500	463
November	816	608	741
December		918	1085
January		1160	1257
February		1275	1070
March		1027	889

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Buffalo

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Period:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	2111	2053	2361

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	216	189	263
12/22	252	175	251
12/15	257	150	238
12/08	265	260	222
12/01	215	92	203
11/24	208	194	185
11/17	155	136	168
11/10	180	124	151
11/03	127	155	135
10/27	61	163	119
10/20	43	113	103
10/13	55	87	86
10/06	3	75	68

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Month:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	228	495	442
November	772	604	737
December		857	1081
January		1115	1256
February		1290	1110
March		923	961

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Massena

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Period:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	2808	2601	2964

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	220	250	329
12/22	346	223	315
12/15	360	187	295
12/08	329	278	271
12/01	252	169	247
11/24	255	221	222
11/17	186	144	200
11/10	206	162	182
11/03	168	174	165
10/27	92	183	148
10/20	97	132	131
10/13	108	110	112
10/06	37	99	92

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Month:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	412	596	563
November	927	751	886
December		1062	1343
January		1420	1559
February		1503	1332
March		1184	1122

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

New York City

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Period:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	1392	1121	1590

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	141	126	207
12/22	192	124	195
12/15	181	118	180
12/08	215	181	168
12/01	139	68	151
11/24	147	131	135
11/17	119	36	119
11/10	121	79	103
11/03	78	66	87
10/27	19	99	72
10/20	10	45	58
10/13	19	26	44
10/06	0	14	31

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Month:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	91	213	249
November	530	342	524
December		600	836
January		806	1008
February		981	861
March		682	713

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Syracuse

Seasonal Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
07/01 - 12/29	2242	2033	2434

Weekly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
12/29	207	197	271
12/22	269	180	259
12/15	275	159	245
12/08	288	242	227
12/01	212	107	207
11/24	221	197	188
11/17	178	116	170
11/10	182	124	153
11/03	130	143	138
10/27	67	150	122
10/20	55	110	107
10/13	47	91	91
10/06	11	76	72

Monthly Heating Degree Day

Week Ending:	Current Year:	Last Year:	Normal:
October	243	482	460
November	806	604	748
December		851	1113
January		1169	1296
February		1290	1131
March		1033	959

Note: Normal is a 30-year degree day average value for the period 1971-2000.
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Definition: Degree-days are relative measurements of outdoor air temperature used as an index for heating energy requirements. Heating degree-days are the number of degrees that the daily average temperature falls below 65° F.

Additional energy price inquiries should be addressed to Judeen Byrne at (518) 862-1090, ext. 3514

2008

Howdy. I am back on the job. The world is once again secure.

This is New Year's day and that gives us a chance to create a gap with the past, one way to move into the future.

You may be interested in one particular celebration: CLICK HERE

My own gig at First Night went well. I took a big chance assuming that people would join in and sing, but I knew it is part of our human nature to share life with out neighbors in song. The longest anyone could hold out in the three shows was about a minute. When you pick songs that mean something, you have an open door to the heart.

Caught one lady wiping away tears after the September Song.

So, I wish you the same, wipe away your tears of experience and be not troubled by days of auld lang syne. After all, tomorrow is another future.

A happy new year is the best revenge.

Gene